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Survey Reports
November 6, 2000
Popular Vote A Tossup: Bush 49%, Gore 47%, Nader 4%
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
NOVEMBER 2000 ELECTION WEEKEND SURVEY
FINAL TOPLINE
November 2-5, 2000
N = 2,254 General Public
N = 1,829 Registered Voters
NOTE: ALL NUMBERS IN SURVEY, INCLUDING TREND FIGURES, ARE BASED ON REGISTERED
VOTERS EXCEPT WHERE NOTED
Q.1 How much thought have you given to next Tuesday's election, quite a lot,
or only a little?
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.)
A lot Some Little None DK/Ref.
Early November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
Q.2 How closely have you been following news about the presidential election...
very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?
Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.)
closely closely closely closely DK/Ref.
Early November, 2000 39 44 12 5 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 37 15 8 *=100
Early October, 2000 42 36 15 6 1=100
September, 2000 27 46 18 8 1=100
July, 2000 25 40 19 15 1=100
June, 2000 27 34 22 16 1=100
April, 2000 21 36 25 18 *=100
Early April, 2000 22 43 20 15 *=100
March, 2000 30 43 16 10 1=100
November, 1996 34 45 15 6 *=100
Early September, 1996 29 39 19 13 *=100
July, 1996 25 42 21 11 1=100
October, 1992 55 36 7 2 0=100
September, 1992 47 36 11 6 *=100
August, 1992 36 51 11 2 0=100
July, 1992 23 48 24 5 *=100
October, 1988 43 44 11 2 *=100
August, 1988 39 45 13 3 *=100
Q.3 Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
Late Oct Mid-Oct Early Oct Late Oct Early Oct Nov Late Sept Nov
2000 2000 2000 1998 1998 1996 1996 1994
83 Yes 81 82 84 86 87 85 85 91
17 No 19 18 16 14 13 15 15 9
* DK/Ref * 0 * * * * * *
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
RESPONDENTS IN THE 701 AREA CODE (N. DAKOTA) SHOULD BE SKIPPED TO Q.6.
Q.4 These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or
move around so often they don't get a chance to re-register... Are you NOW registered
to vote in your precinct or election district, or haven't you been able to register
so far?
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "YES" IN Q.4 AND IS NOT IN SELECTED AREA CODE, ASK:
Q.5 Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote, or is there a chance your
registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason?
BASED ON VOTING AGE POPULATION: [N=2,254] Nov 1996
80 Yes, registered 76
73 Absolutely certain 69
2 Chance registration has lapsed 2
5 Can register Election Day 4
* Don't know/Refused 1
20 No, not registered 24
0 Don't have to register (VOL.) *
* Don't know/Refused *
100 100
IF RESPONDENT IS IN SELECTED AREA CODE AND ANSWERED "NO, NOT REGISTERED" OR
"DON'T HAVE TO REGISTER IN Q.4, ASK:
Q.5a Next Tuesday, do you plan to register so that you can vote in the election?
BASED ON TOTAL VOTING AGE POPULATION IN SELECTED AREA CODE: [N=29]
61 Yes
28 No
11 Don't know/Refused
100
Q.6 Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of
the time, whether there's an election or not. Others aren't that interested. Would you
say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs...(READ CHOICES)
Most of Some of Only Now Hardly Don't know/
The Time the Time and Then at All Refused
Early November, 2000 51 32 12 5 *=100
September, 2000 51 34 10 4 1=100
June, 2000 46 31 15 8 *=100
Late September, 1999 46 32 17 5 *=100
August, 1999 48 34 13 5 *=100
Late October, 1998 57 29 10 4 *=100
Early October, 1998 51 33 11 5 *=100
Early September, 1998 52 33 11 4 *=100
June, 1998 42 33 18 7 *=100
November, 1997 47 35 14 4 *=100
November, 1996 52 32 12 4 *=100
October, 1996 43 37 13 6 1=100
October, 1995 52 33 11 4 *=100
April, 1995 49 34 13 4 *=100
November, 1994 57 30 10 3 *=100
October, 1994 52 34 10 4 0=100
July, 1994 51 32 13 4 *=100
May, 1990 43 36 15 6 *=100
October, 1988 52 33 12 3 *=100
May, 1988 42 37 15 4 2=100
January, 1988 42 35 17 5 1=100
May, 1987 47 35 13 4 1=100
Q.7 How often would you say you vote? (READ CHOICES)
(VOL.)
Nearly Part of (VOL.) Never
Always Always The time Seldom Other Vote DK/Ref.
Early November, 2000 57 26 8 6 1 2 *=100
Late October, 2000 52 30 9 6 1 2 0=100
Mid-October, 2000 54 27 10 6 * 3 *=100
Early October, 2000 51 29 10 6 3 1 *=100
September, 2000 61 21 9 7 * 2 *=100
June, 2000 58 26 10 4 1 1 *=100
Late September, 1999 40 47 9 3 * 1 *=100
Early September, 1998 53 33 9 4 1 0 *=100
June, 1998 49 33 12 5 1 0 0=100
September, 1997 62 26 8 3 * 1 *=100
November, 1996 55 28 8 6 1 2 *=100
October, 1996 52 30 9 5 2 2 *=100
Late September, 1996 52 31 10 4 1 2 *=100
June, 1996 52 33 9 4 1 1 *=100
February, 1996 42 41 11 4 1 1 *=100
October, 1995 53 35 7 4 * 1 *=100
April, 1995 53 34 9 4 * * *=100
November, 1994 58 28 8 5 1 * 0=100
October, 1994 55 32 10 3 * * *=100
July, 1994 52 34 10 4 * * *=100
June, 1992 60 29 7 3 1 * *=100
May, 1992 50 35 10 4 * 1 *=100
November, 1991 46 41 9 4 0 * *=100
May, 1990 42 42 11 4 * 1 *=100
Gallup: November, 1988 57 26 10 4 2 1 *=100
Gallup: October, 1988 56 26 12 4 1 1 *=100
May, 1988 43 41 11 3 1 2 *=100
January, 1988 49 39 9 2 * 1 *=100
May, 1987 43 43 9 3 1 1 *=100
Q.7a Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
Late Early -- Gallup --
Oct Oct Nov Oct Nov Nov Oct
1998 1998 1996 1996 1994 1988 1988
84 Yes gives answer 90 87 88 85 93 89 88
16 No/DK/Ref/No Answer 10 13 12 15 7 11 12
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
SPLIT FORM FOR Q.8 & Q.9:
FORM 1, ASK GORE, THEN BUSH, THEN NADER, THEN BUCHANAN; FORM 2, ASK BUSH, THEN
GORE, THEN NADER, THEN BUCHANAN .
Q.8 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Al Gore and
Joe Lieberman, for the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Green Party ticket
headed by Ralph Nader, or for the Reform Party ticket headed by Pat Buchanan?
Q.9 As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Gore the Democrat, more to Bush the Republican, more to Nader of
the Green Party or more to Buchanan the Reform Party candidate?
Q.14 Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.8; DO NOT READ VP CHOICE)strongly or only moderately?
Late Mid- Early Late Mid-
Oct Oct Oct Sept July June June
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
45 Gore/Lean Gore 43 45 44 47 41 35 42
25 Strongly 24 22 22 25 n/a n/a n/a
19 Only moderately 19 23 22 21 n/a n/a n/a
1 Don't know * * * 1 n/a n/a n/a
41 Bush/Lean Bush 45 43 43 41 42 42 41
26 Strongly 29 25 26 21 n/a n/a n/a
15 Only moderately 16 18 17 19 n/a n/a n/a
* Don't know * * * 1 n/a n/a n/a
4 Nader/Lean Nader 4 4 5 2 6 2 4
2 Strongly 2 2 2 1 n/a n/a n/a
2 Only moderately 2 2 3 1 n/a n/a n/a
* Don't know * 0 0 0 n/a n/a n/a
1 Buchanan/Lean Buchanan 1 1 * 1 2 2 3
* Strongly * * 0 * n/a n/a n/a
1 Only moderately 1 1 * 1 n/a n/a n/a
0 Don't know 0 0 0 * n/a n/a n/a
9 Undecided/Other/DK 7 7 8 9 9 19 10
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
SPLIT FORM FOR Q.15 & Q.16:
FORM 1, ASK REPUBLICAN FIRST; FORM 2, ASK DEMOCRAT FIRST.
Q.15 If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the
Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your
district?
Q.16 As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?
Republican/ Democrat/ Other/
Lean Rep. Lean Dem. Undecided
Early November, 2000 42 48 10=100
Early October, 2000 43 47 10=100
July, 2000 43 47 10=100
February, 2000 44 47 9=100
October, 1999 43 49 8=100
June, 1999 40 50 10=100
November, 1998 42 48 10=100
Late October, 1998 40 47 13=100
Early October, 1998 43 44 13=100
Early September, 1998 45 46 9=100
Late August, 1998 44 45 11=100
Early August, 1998 42 49 9=100
June, 1998 44 46 10=100
March, 1998 40 52 8=100
February, 1998 41 50 9=100
January, 1998 41 51 8=100
August, 1997 45 48 7=100
Early November, 1996 44 48 8=100
October, 1996 42 49 9=100
Late September, 1996 43 49 8=100
Early September, 1996 43 51 6=100
July, 1996 46 47 7=100
June, 1996 44 50 6=100
March, 1996 44 49 7=100
January, 1996 46 47 7=100
October, 1995 48 48 4=100
August, 1995 50 43 7=100
November, 1994 45 43 12=100
October, 1994 47 44 9=100
Early October, 1994 52 40 8=100
September, 1994 48 46 6=100
July, 1994 45 47 8=100
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "REPUBLICAN" OR "DEMOCRATIC" IN Q.15, ASK:
Q.17 Do you support the (INSERT: Democratic/Republican) candidate strongly
or only moderately?
Late Oct 1998 Nov 1996 Nov 1994
42 Republican/Lean Rep 40 41 45
20 Strongly 19 18 19
22 Moderately 21 23 26
* Don't know/Refused -- * --
48 Democrat/Lean Dem 47 48 43
23 Strongly 24 22 17
24 Moderately 23 25 26
1 Don't know/Refused -- 1 --
10 Other/Undecided 13 11 12
100 100 100 100
[NOTE SPECIAL INSTRUCTION: NON-REGISTERED VOTERS ('2' IN Q.4 AND NOT IN SELECTED
AREA CODE, OR '9' IN Q.4, OR '2' OR '9' IN Q.5, OR 2 OR 9 IN Q.5a) SHOULD NOW SKIP TO D.1]
Now thinking about the presidential election again...
IF RESPONDENT CHOSE GORE/LIEBERMAN IN Q.8 OR Q.14 ASK: [N=799]
Q.18 Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Al Gore or more a vote AGAINST George W. Bush?
IF RESPONDENT CHOSE BUSH/CHENEY IN Q.8 OR Q.14 ASK: [N=788]
Q.19 Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST Al Gore?
Direction of Support Sept 2000 1996 Election Nov Oct Sept
45 Gore 47 Clinton 51 51 52
29 Pro-Gore 30 Pro-Clinton 33 33 35
14 Anti-Bush 14 Anti-other candidates 15 16 15
2 Undecided 3 Undecided 3 2 2
41 Bush 41 Dole 32 34 34
27 Pro-Bush 24 Pro-Dole 15 15 16
12 Anti-Gore 14 Anti-other candidates 15 18 17
2 Undecided 3 Undecided 2 1 1
14 Other/DK/Ref 12 Perot 9 8 8
100 100 Pro-Perot 4 4 3
Anti-other candidates 5 4 5
Undecided * * 0
Don't know/Refused 8 7 6
100 100 100
FOR ALL RESPONDENTS WHO DIDN'T ANSWER 18 OR 19, READ TRANSITION:
Now thinking about the presidential election again...
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE GORE IN Q.8 ASK: [N=1,030]
Q.20 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Al Gore next Tuesday or have
you definitely decided not to vote for him?
Late Oct Mid-Oct Early Oct Sept June Clinton
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 Nov 1996
8 Chance might vote for him 9 10 11 13 14 6
41 Decided not to vote for him 44 40 38 35 34 37
6 Don't know/Refused 4 5 7 5 6 6
55% 57% 55% 56% 53% 54% 49%
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.8, ASK: [N=1,041]
Q.21 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush next Tuesday
or have you definitely decided not to vote for him?
Late Oct Mid-Oct Early Oct Sept June Dole
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 Nov 1996
8 Chance might vote for him 10 12 11 15 15 8
44 Decided not to vote for him 41 40 39 38 33 54
7 Don't know/Refused 4 5 7 6 6 6
59% 55% 57% 57% 59% 54% 68%
ASK ALL:
Q.22 Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the election this Tuesday, or not?
Yes, Plan No, Don't Can't Say/
To Vote Plan To Don't know
Early November, 2000 96 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 97 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2000 96 2 2=100
Early October, 2000 97 2 1=100
September, 2000 95 3 2=100
June, 2000 95 2 3=100
Late October, 1998+ 91 6 3=100
Early October, 1998+ 92 4 4=100
Early September, 1998+ 95 2 3=100
Late August, 1998+ 93 3 4=100
June, 1998+ 95 3 2=100
November, 1996 96 2 2=100
October, 1996 98 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 98 1 1=100
Early September, 1996 96 2 2=100
July, 1996 95 3 2=100
June, 1996 96 2 2=100
November, 1994+ 93 5 2=100
October, 1994+ 95 3 2=100
October, 1992 98 1 1=100
September, 1992 98 1 1=100
August, 1992 97 1 2=100
June, 1992 97 1 2=100
Gallup: November, 1988 97 2 1=100
Gallup: October, 1988 98 1 1=100
+ Non-Presidential elections
Q.23 Next, I'd like you to rate your chance of voting in Tuesday's election on a scale
of 10 to 1. If 10 represents a person who definitely will vote and 1 represents a person
who definitely will not vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself?
Definitely Definitely
will vote will not vote
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 DK/Ref
Early November, 2000 80 6 5 2 1 3 * * * 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 83 5 5 1 1 2 * 1 1 1 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 80 7 4 3 1 3 1 * * 1 1=100
Early October, 2000 78 7 5 2 2 2 * 1 1 1 1=100
Late October, 1998 70 6 7 4 1 4 1 1 1 4 1=100
Early October, 1998 64 9 10 4 2 4 1 2 1 2 1=100
November, 1996 77 7 7 2 1 2 * 1 * 2 1=100
October, 1996 77 9 7 2 2 2 * * * 1 *=100
Late September, 1996 78 10 6 2 1 1 * * * 1 1=100
November, 1994 67 9 8 2 2 4 1 1 1 3 2=100
October, 1994 66 10 9 4 2 4 1 1 * 2 1=100
Gallup: September, 1992 77 5 4 3 2 4 * 1 * 4 *=100
Gallup: November, 1988 77 7 6 2 1 3 * * * 2 2=100
Gallup: October, 1988 73 8 7 3 2 3 1 * * 1 2=100
Thinking again about the congressional elections...
Q.24 Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected on Tuesday, or not?
(VOL.)
Congressperson
Yes No Not running No Opinion
Early November, 2000 59 16 1 24=100
Early October, 2000 60 17 1 22=100
July, 1999 66 23 * 11=100
Late October, 1998 64 19 1 16=100
Early October, 1998 58 20 2 20=100
Early September, 1998 63 20 1 16=100
March, 1998 63 21 1 15=100
January, 1998 66 23 0 11=100
August, 1997 66 22 0 12=100
November, 1996 60 16 3 21=100
October, 1996 62 19 2 17=100
Late September, 1996 55 17 2 26=100
Early September, 1996 62 19 2 17=100
November, 1994 58 25 1 16=100
October, 1994 55 30 2 13=100
Early October, 1994 49 29 2 20=100
Gallup: October 1990 62 22 2 14=100
Thinking about the presidential election again...
Q.25 In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important,
or is it no more important than any other presidential election?
Nov 1996
67 Especially important 61
31 No more important than the others 38
2 Don't Know/Refused 1
100 100
Q.26 Regardless of who you support, who do you think WILL be elected president, Al Gore
or George W. Bush?
Late Oct Early Oct June Oct
2000 2000 2000 1999 Late Sept 1996
32 Al Gore 38 46 33 23 79 Clinton
43 George W. Bush 48 33 51 70 12 Dole
n/a Other n/a n/a n/a 1 1 Perot
25 Don't know/Refused 14 21 16 6 8 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.27 Recently, have you been contacted over the phone by any candidates, campaigns or
other groups urging you to vote in a particular way in the upcoming elections?
IF YES, ASK:
Q.28 And were you urged to vote for Al Gore and/or other Democratic candidates OR George
W. Bush and/or other Republican candidates?
26 Yes
6 Gore/Democrats
8 Bush/Republicans
2 Other (VOL.)
6 Both (VOL.)
4 Don't know/Refused
73 No
1 Don't know/Refused
100
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "UNDECIDED" (Q.9 = 9), ASK:
One last question about your opinion of the candidates ...
Q.29 I have been asked to try to get a choice for president from everyone I interview.
Even though you may not have made up your mind, could you make a guess so I will have
something to put down? The candidates are Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and
Cheney, the Republicans, Ralph Nader of the Green Party and Pat Buchanan of the Reform
party.
3 Gore/Lean Gore
1 Bush/Lean Bush
* Nader/Lean Nader
* Buchanan/Lean Buchanan
4 Undecided/Other/DK
92 Question not asked
100
Q.30 THROUGH Q.32 ASKED NOV. 3-5, 2000: [N=1,330]
Q.30 How closely have you been following news reports that George W. Bush was arrested
for drunk driving in 1976? Have you been following this very closely, fairly closely,
not too closely, or not at all closely?
24 Very closely
28 Fairly closely
27 Not too closely
19 Not at all closely
2 Don't know/Refused
100
IF FOLLOWING STORY ("1, 2 or 3" IN Q.30), ASK : [N=1,067]
Q.31 Has this story raised serious doubts in your mind about voting for George W. Bush,
or is this not a serious consideration for you?
11 Raised serious doubts about voting for Bush
87 Not a serious consideration
2 Don't know/Refused
100
IF FOLLOWING STORY ("1, 2 or 3" IN Q.30), ASK : [N=1,067]
Q.32 Some have accused the Democrats of being behind the release of this story because
it's so close to the election. Has this charge against the Democrats raised serious
doubts in your mind about voting for Al Gore, is this not a serious consideration for
you, or have you not heard this charge?
11 Raised serious doubts about voting for Gore
76 Not a serious consideration
10 Has not heard charge
3 Don't know/Refused
100
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