October 24, 1999

Optimism Reigns, Technology Plays Key Role

Questionnaire

          PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
                     1999 MILLENNIUM SURVEY 
                        --FINAL TOPLINE--
                      April 6 - May 6, 1999
                          TOTAL N=1,546
                  Form 1 (N=789); Form 2 (N=757)


Now, I'd like to ask you some questions about the coming of the year 2000...
Q.18 How do you feel about the coming of the year 2000?  Do you think this
has any special significance or do you think it will be just another year
on the calendar? 

    Sept  April
    1999* 1999
     29   33   Special significance
     68   64   Just another year on the calendar
      3    3   Don't know
     100  100

[*NOTE: To provide updated figures, question 18 and 19 wer included in a
        national survey conducted September 1-12, 1999 (N=1,205).]

Q.19 Now I'm going to read a list.  Please tell me if each item describes how
you feel about the coming of the year 2000.  (First,) (READ; ROTATE), does
this describe how you feel about the coming of the year 2000, or not?
What about... 

                                  Yes    No   DK/Ref
     a.   Hopeful
            September, 1999        81    18   1=100
            April, 1999            79    20   1=100

     b.   Curious
            September, 1999        64    35   1=100
            April, 1999            68    31   1=100

     c.   Excited
            September, 1999        42    57   1=100
            April, 1999            43    56   1=100

     d.   Worried
            September, 1999        16    83   1=100
            April, 1999            25    74   1=100


IF YES IN Q.19d ("WORRIED"), ASK [N=394]:
Q.20 You mentioned that you feel worried about the coming of the year 2000.
Why are you worried? (OPEN-END; PROBE FOR MULTIPLE RESPONSES) 

43   Y2K Computer Bug (NET)
     19   Computer crash will cause chaos
     19   Y2K Problem/Millennium bug
      5   People will overreact/False panic
      2   Bank records getting messed up/Money not available/ATMs down
      2   Electricity/Utilities might go off
      1   Lack of organized backup plans/Not prepared
      *   Things being locked up
17   War/Armageddon (NET)
      7   Wars/Nuclear threat/Our defense systems
      7   End of the world
      2   International events/Unrest/Political situation in the world
      2   European theater can become World War III
 9   Public Safety (NET)
      5   Could be a real mess/No one knows what will happen/Unpredictability
      3   Panic/People being safe
      2   Food shortages
 8   What it will bring/What the future holds
 8   Stories/Rumors/Speculation (Miscellaneous)
 4   Always worry about everything/Worried it will get worse
 4   Religious significance/Reference to the Bible
 4   Economy (NET)
      3   Economic concerns/Another depression
      1   People losing jobs
 3   Personal worries/Health/Getting older
 3   Change/All the changes in our way of life
 3   Technology growing too fast/Running our lives
 2   Crime/Violence
 1   Moral/Spiritual values declining
 1   Not worried/Ready for what comes
 1   Major weather changes/Natural disasters
 6   Other
 1   No answer/Not sure/Don't Know/Refused


ASK ALL:
Now, thinking about the long term future, that is the next 50 years or so...
Q.21 First, thinking about you and your family... Would you say you are very
optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic
about life for you and your family over the next 50 years? 

     40   Very optimistic
     41   Somewhat optimistic
     10   Somewhat pessimistic
      5   Very pessimistic
      4   Don't know/Refused
     100


Q.22 Now, thinking about the United States... Would you say you are very
optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic
about the future of the U.S., over the next 50 years? 

     23   Very optimistic
     47   Somewhat optimistic
     20   Somewhat pessimistic
      7   Very pessimistic
      3   Don't know/Refused
     100


On another subject...
Q.23 Are you the parent or guardian of any children under 18 years of age?

     39   Yes   GO TO Q.24
     61   No   GO TO Q.25
      *   Don't know/Refused   GO TO Q.25
     100


BASED ON PARENTS OF CHILDREN UNDER 18 [N=598]
Q.24 Looking to the future, when your children grow up do you think they
will be better off or worse off than you are now? 

                                                 Newsweek
                               December 1996    August 1994
     67   Better off               51               47
     22   Worse off                41               39
      7   Same (VOL.)               4                5
      4   Don't know/Refused        4                9
     100                           100              100


ASK ALL [N=1515]:
Q.25 Looking to the future, do you think MOST children in this country
will grow up to be better off or worse off than their parents? 

                                                 Newsweek
                               December 1996    August 1994
     55   Better off               38               33
     36   Worse off                55               50
      4   Same (VOL.)               3                6
      5   Don't know/Refused        4               11
     100                           100              100


ROTATE Q.26 AND Q.27/27a
Q.26 If life is going to be better in this country in the future, how big a
role do you think each of the following will play:  (First) will (INSERT --
READ AND ROTATE) play a major role, a minor role, or no role at all in
making things better?  How about...

                                  Major  Minor  No Role  Don't know/
                                  Role   Role   At All   Refused
a.   Science and technology        89      8       2     1=100
          December, 1996           77     17       4     2=100

b.   Multinational Corporations    52     34       9     5=100
          December, 1996           59     32       7     2=100

c.   Small businesses              44     46       8     2=100
          December, 1996           51     41       6     2=100

d.   Organized Religion            45     41      11     3=100
          December, 1996           52     38       8     2=100

e.   Schools and universities      79     17       3     1=100
          December, 1996           77     18       4     1=100

f.F1 The government in Washington  64     29       5     2=100
          December, 1996           71     23       5     1=100

g.F2 Government                    65     28       6     1=100
          December, 1996           70     24       4     2=100

h.   The news media                48     41      10     1=100
          December, 1996           50     38      10     2=100

i    The military                  54     37       7     2=100

j.   Medical advances              85     13       1     1=100


Q.27 In your opinion, how much of a threat to our country's future well-
being are each of the following:  (First) is (INSERT --READ AND ROTATE
ITEMS a-i; SUBSTITUTE "ARE" FOR "IS" FOR ITEM g) a major threat, a minor
threat, or not a threat at all?  How about... 

                                       Major   Minor   Not a Threat   Don't know/
                                       Threat  Threat  at All         Refused
a.   The news media                      32      40        26         2=100
          December, 1996                 39      39        19         3=100

b.   Immigration into this country       42      38        18         2=100
          
c.F1 The government in Washington        45      34        18         3=100
          December, 1996                 43      37        18         2=100

d.F2 Government                          46      31        21         2=100
          December, 1996                 43      39        14         4=100

e.   The pace of technological change    35      33        28         4=100
          December, 1996                 29      37        29         5=100

f.   Economic competition from
     other nations                       45      37        16         2=100
          December, 1996                 47      39        12         2=100

g.   Multinational corporations          35      38        21         6=100

h.   Population growth                   52      34        12         2=100

i.   Commercial and residential
     development                         31      41        25         3=100


Q.27a     And now a few more items... (First,) is/are (INSERT ITEM ROTATE a-e)
a major threat, a minor threat, or not a threat at all? How about...

                                       Major   Minor   Not a Threat   Don't know/
                                       Threat  Threat  at All         Refused
a.   International terrorists            64      30         4         2=100
          December, 1996                 54      38         6         2=100

b.   Anti-government groups              39      47        10         4=100
          December, 1996                 38      47        12         3=100

c.   Racial conflict                     46      43        10         1=100
          December, 1996                 49      40         9         2=100

d.   Special interest groups in politics 38      45        13         4=100
          December, 1996                 53      37         7         3=100

e.   Environmental problems              66      28         4         2=100


Q.28 Thinking ahead over the next 50 years, as I read the following pairs,
please tell me which is more likely to happen here in the U.S. (First/Next),
do you think... (INSERT ITEM PAIRS -- READ AND ROTATE) 

                                                     December 1996
a.F1 59   The crime rate will be higher                   68
          OR
     36   The crime rate will be lower                    28
      2   Neither/No change (VOL.)                         2
      3   Don't know/Refused                               2
     100                                                  100

b.F2 36   Health care will be MORE affordable             36
          OR
     60   Health care will be LESS affordable             61
      1   Neither/No change (VOL.)                         1
      3   Don't know/Refused                               2
     100                                                  100
  
c.F1 64   The U.S. economy will be stronger               53
          OR
     31   The U.S. economy will be weaker                 42
      2   Neither/No change (VOL.)                         2
      3   Don't know/Refused                               3
     100                                                  100

d.F2 68   Race relations will improve                     54
          OR
     28   Race relations will get worse                   40
      3   Neither/No change (VOL.)                         3
      1   Don't know/Refused                               3
     100                                                  100

e.F1 66   The public education system will improve        59
          OR
     30   The public education system will get worse      37
      2   Neither/No change (VOL.)                         2
      2   Don't know/Refused                               2
     100                                                  100

f.F2 58   People will live much longer
          OR
     40   People will live about as long as they do now
      2   Neither/No change (VOL.)
      *   Don't know/Refused
     100

g.F1 41   Honesty and ethics among our elected leaders will improve
          OR
     52   Honesty and ethics among our elected leaders will get worse
      4   Neither/No change (VOL.)
      3   Don't know/Refused
     100

h.F2 69   The gap between rich and poor will grow
          OR
     27   The gap between rich and poor will get smaller
      2   Neither/No change (VOL.)
      2   Don't know/Refused
     100

i.F1 67   More babies will be born out of wedlock
          OR
     29   Fewer babies will be born out of wedlock
      1   Neither/No change (VOL.)
      3   Don't know/Refused
     100


Q.29 Now I'm going to read you a list of things that may or may not happen
in the next 50 years.  Please tell me how likely you think it is that each
will happen.  (First,) How likely do you think it is that (INSERT ITEM;
ROTATE)... do you think this will definitely happen, will probably happen,
will probably NOT happen, or will definitely not happen? How about...

                                             Will        Will      Will        Will
                                             Definitely  Probably  Probably    Definitely   Don't know/
                                             Happen      Happen    Not Happen  Not Happen   Refused
a.   Jesus Christ will return to earth         22          22         27          17        12=100

b.F1 There will be a nuclear war 
     involving the U.S.                         7          30         47          11         5=100

c.F2 There will be a nuclear war                9          32         46          11         2=100
 
d.   There will be a major terrorist attack 
     on the U.S. involving biological or 
     chemical weapons                          13          51         28           4         4=100

e.   The world will face a major energy crisis 15          48         30           4         3=100

f.F1 The earth will get warmer                 28          48         16           3         5=100

g.F2 We will make progress in
     improving our environment                 19          59         18           2         2=100

h.F1 An asteroid will hit the earth             6          25         48          14         7=100

i.F2 We will make contact with alien life       4          23         42          27         4=100

j.F1 Ordinary people will travel in space      12          45         32           9         2=100

k.F2 A manned spacecraft will land on Mars     18          58         17           5         2=100

l.   The Republican and Democratic
     parties will continue to be our 
     only two major political parties          14          38         37           8         3=100

m.F1 There will be an epidemic 
     worse than AIDS                           14          42         35           6         3=100

n.F2 There will be a cure for AIDS             19          60         16           4         1=100

o.   There will be a major 
     earthquake in California                  35          56          5           1         3=100

p.   There will be a cure for cancer           23          58         16           2         1=100

q.F1 The Catholic Church will 
     allow priests to marry                     7          36         36          14         7=100

r.F2 The Catholic Church will
     ordain women as priests                    7          36         35          15         7=100

s.F1 China will become a rival
     superpower to the U.S.                    18          49         24           5         4=100

t.F2 The U.S. will remain the
     world's only superpower                   13          31         43          10         3=100

u.F1 A woman will be elected  U.S. president   27          53         16           3         1=100

v.F2 An African American will be
     elected U.S. president                    17          59         17           5         2=100

w.F1 Democracy will continue to
     spread around the world                   20          59         14           2         5=100

x.F2 More countries will be ruled by dictators  8          33         47           8         4=100

y.   We will clone human beings                12          39         32          13         4=100


On another subject...
Q.30 If it were possible, would you like to live to the 22nd century
that is another 100 years or do you think you would prefer not to? 

     36   Yes, would want to live another 100 years
     62   No, would not
      2   Don't know/Refused
     100


Q.31F1/
Q.32F2    Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and ask you
to choose which one comes closest to your point of view, even if neither
is exactly right.  (First,) (INSERT PAIR; ROTATE), which comes closest to
your point of view?

a.        Our growing reliance on technology is generally GOOD
     55   because it makes life more convenient and easier
          OR...
          Our growing reliance on technology is generally BAD because
     39    we will become too dependent on it and life will get too complicated
      3   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      3   Don't know/Refused
     100

b.        The global economy will HELP average Americans because
     43   it will strengthen our economy and keep prices affordable for consumers
          OR...
          The global economy will HURT average Americans because businesses will rely more
     52   on cheap labor from other countries and U.S. jobs will be lost
      1   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      4   Don't know/Refused
     100

c.        The growing world population will NOT be a major problem because we will find a way to
     42   stretch our natural resources
          OR...
          The growing population WILL be a major problem because there
     56   won't be enough food and resources to go around
      1   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      1   Don't know/Refused
     100

d.   66   Medical advances that prolong life are generally GOOD because they allow people to live longer
          OR...
     29   These advances are BAD because they interfere with the natural cycle of life
      3   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      2   Don't know/Refused
     100

e.   63   Interracial marriages are GOOD because they help break down racial barriers
          OR...
          Interracial marriages are BAD because mixing races reduces the special talents or
     26   gifts of each individual race
      6   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      5   Don't know/Refused
     100

f.        If the number of legal immigrants to the U.S. continues to grow this will HELP
     43   America because they will contribute to our society
          OR...
          If the number of legal immigrants to the U.S. continues to grow this
     51   will HURT America because they are changing American society too much
      3   Neither/Both equally (VOL.)
      3   Don't know/Refused
     100


NO QUESTION 33