May 16, 1998

Possible Consequences of Non-Response for Pre-Election Surveys

Tables

Table 1.  Initial and Reluctant Respondents: A Demographic Profile
                                             (Based on unweighted data)

                                Amenable Respondents     Reluctant Respondents
                                    (No refusal)         (Refusal conversion)
                                       (N=917)	                 (N=542)
                                          %                          %
Sex
Male                                     45                         41
Female                                   55                         59

Race
White                                    79                         83
Black                                    13                          9
Other                                     8                          8

Age
Under 30                                 20                         18
30-49                                    44                         40
50-64                                    16                         20
65+                                      17                         17

Education
College Grad.                            28                         29
Some College                             24                         25
High School Grad.                        37                         37
Less than H.S. Grad                      11                          9

Family Income
$75,000+                                 10                         14
$50,000-$74,999                          14                         17
$30,000-$49,999                          26                         24
$20,000-$29,999                          15                         12
Less than $20,000                        23                         20

Region
East                                     20                         19
Midwest                                  25                         26
South                                    35                         37
West                                     20                         18

Community Size
Large City                               20                         20
Suburb                                   22                         25
Small City/Town                          37                         36
Rural Area                               19                         18

Employment Status
Full-Time                                55                         56
Part-Time                                12                          8
Not Employed                             32                         34

Party ID
Republican                               26                         31
Democrat                                 33                         33
Independent                              36                         30


                 Table 2.   Demographic and methodological predictors of racial attitudes
                           Overall opinion                                Views on role of
                              of Blacks                                racial discrimination
                     Unstd Coeff.    (S.E.)    Std. Coeff.     Unstd Coeff.    (S.E.)    Std. Coeff.
Female                   .107 **     (.037)	   .10	           .127        (.080)       .05

Age                     -.000        (.001)       -.01            -.003        (.002)      -.04

Education                .035 **     (.012)        .10             .073 **     (.026)       .10

Income                   .000        (.010)        .00             .008        (.022)       .01

South                   -.050        (.039)       -.04            -.254 **     (.083)      -.10

Political ideology       .044 *      (.020)        .07             .172 **     (.043)       .13

Reluctant respondent    -.122 **     (.047)       -.11            -.264 **     (.099)      -.11

Black interviewer        .055        (.039)        .05             .331 **     (.084)       .14

Rigorous survey         -.044        (.060)       -.03             .080        (.126)       .02

Constant                2.854        (.113)                       1.266        (.241)

Number of cases                       931                                       878
F-statistic                          5.38 ***                                  9.40 ***
Adjusted R-squared                    .04                                       .08

*   p < or = .05
**  p < or = .01

Note: Entries are unstandardized coefficients, standard errors, and standardized coefficients from least squares regression
based on unweighted data.  Dependent variable in first equation is overall opinion toward Blacks.  Responses range from
1 ("very unfavorable") to 4 ("very favorable").  Dependent variable in second equation is views concerning the main
reason "many black people can't get ahead these days" -- a forced choice between "racial discrimination" or blacks
themselves are "mostly responsible for their own condition".  Responses range from 1 (believe "very strongly" that
blacks themselves are responsible) to 4 (believe "very strongly" that racial discrimination is to blame).  Full question
wording is in Appendix 2.

Response Rates 
The following table presents the full disposition of sampled telephone numbers for the Standard and Rigorous surveys: 


                                          Standard
                                          Five-Day     Rigorous
Non-sample numbers:
Telephone number not in service/
not working/business number/fax number      1297         1020

Households never screened:
No answer/busy/answering machine
Not available/callback                       938          185

Households that refused                      678          396

Households with no eligible person:
Language barrier/health problem/
No person 18 or older                        221          227

Households with eligible person:
Incomplete interviews                         42           33
Completed interviews                        1000         1201

TOTAL TELEPHONE NUMBERS                     4176         3062