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Survey Reports
May 18, 2001
Screening Likely Voters: A Survey Experiment
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
PHILADELPHIA VOTER PARTICIPATION EXPERIMENT
TOPLINE
WAVE 1: OCT 13-21, 1999
[LISTED VOTER SAMPLE N=509 / RANDOM DIGIT SAMPLE N=1,170]
WAVE 2: OCT 27-30, 1999
[LISTED VOTER SAMPLE N=490 / RANDOM DIGIT SAMPLE N=1,069]
[READING THIS TOPLINE: The figures to the left of the response categories
(Wave 1 and Wave 2) are based on the weighted RDD sample. All figures to
the right of the response categories (Matched: No/Yes, and Voted) are
based on unweighted Listed and Random Digit samples collapsed across
waves 1 and 2.]
Q.2 How much thought have you given to (INSERT: the coming November/Tuesday's)
election -- quite a lot, or only a little?
Self Identified Registered Voters
Not Self Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 Identified RVs No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
36 50 A lot 17 55 58 85 15=100
6 5 Some (VOL.) 5 5 8 74 26=100
45 35 Only a little 56 34 30 62 38=100
12 8 None (VOL.) 20 5 3 -- --
1 2 Don't know/Refused 2 1 1 -- --
100 100 100 100 100
(N=823) (N=721)(N=1694)
FORM 1 ONLY:
R.1 These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote,
or move around so often they don't get a chance to re-register. Are you NOW registered
to vote in your precinct or election district, or haven't you been able to register so far?
IF YES, ASK:
R.2 Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote, or is there a chance your
registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason?
Wave 1 Wave 2
71 77 Yes, registered
68 74 Yes, absolutely certain
3 3 Chance registration may have lapsed -- GO TO Q.26
* * Don't know/Refused -- GO TO Q.26
26 22 No, not registered -- GO TO Q.26
3 1 Don't know/Refused -- GO TO Q.26
100 100
(N=569) (N=1069)
WAVE 1, ASK FORM 2 ONLY:
R.3 These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote.
AFTER I READ ALL OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES, please tell me which one best
describes you. (PROBE: PLEASE WAIT UNTIL I READ THE ENTIRE LIST OF CATEGORIES
BEFORE YOU RESPOND.) (READ LIST)
Wave 1
16 I am not interested in registering to vote -- GO TO Q.26
I thought about registering to vote but
5 haven't had the time -- GO TO Q.26
6 I recently moved and haven't re-registered -- GO TO Q.26
I think I'm registered to vote but I'm not
6 absolutely certain, OR -- GO TO Q.26
65 I am absolutely certain I'm registered to vote
2 Don't know/Refused (DO NOT READ VOL.) -- GO TO Q.26
100
(N=601)
Q.3 THROUGH Q.25 ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY [WAVE 1 LISTED N=413 / RDD N=801;
WAVE 2 LISTED N=400 / RDD N=801; NOT MATCHED N=721 / MATCHED N=1,694]:
Q.3 How closely have you followed news about candidates and the election campaign
in the race for Philadelphia Mayor -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely,
or not at all closely?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
31 35 Very closely 32 38 84 16=100
42 44 Fairly closely 43 42 77 23=100
19 16 Not too closely 17 14 58 42=100
7 5 Not at all closely 7 6 55 45=100
1 * Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.4 Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
86 87 Yes -- Gives Answer 83 90 79 21=100
13 12 No 16 9 53 47=100
1 1 No answer/Don't know 1 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.5 Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district where you now live?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
81 82 Yes 79 86 81 19=100
19 18 No 21 14 43 57=100
* 0 Don't know/Refused * * -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.6 Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs
most of the time, whether there's an election or not. Others aren't that interested.
Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of
the time, some of the time, only now and then or hardly at all?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
50 47 Most of the time 49 52 84 16=100
29 35 Some of the time 31 32 71 29=100
14 12 Only now and then 14 11 61 39=100
7 6 Hardly at all 6 5 55 45=100
* * Don't know/Refused * * -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.7 How often would you say you vote... always, nearly always, part of the time
or seldom?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
54 56 Always 55 62 85 15=100
27 27 Nearly always 26 25 74 26=100
11 10 Part of the time 12 7 43 57=100
6 4 Seldom 6 4 -- --
* 1 Other (VOL.) * 1 -- --
2 1 Never (VOL.) 1 1 -- --
* 1 Don't know/Refused * * -- --
100 100 100 100
ON ANOTHER SUBJECT....
Q.8 Do you happen to know the name of the current Mayor of Philadelphia?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
95 95 Yes 95 97 77 23=100
4 4 No 4 3 -- --
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
WAVE 1, ASK FORM 1 ONLY:
WAVE 2, ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.9 If the election for Philadelphia Mayor were being held TODAY, would you vote
for John Street, the Democrat or Sam Katz, the Republican? [ROTATE ORDER OF CANDIDATES]
IF 'OTHER' (3), 'DON'T PLAN TO VOTE' (4), OR 'DON'T KNOW/REFUSED' (9) IN Q.9 OR Q.10,ASK:
Q.11 As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Street, the Democrat or Katz, the Republican?
NOTE: RETAIN CANDIDATE ORDER FROM Q.9/10
Q.12 Do you support (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q.9 OR Q.10 STREET, KATZ) strongly or only
moderately?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
45 43 Street/Lean Street 40 43 72 28=100
19 22 Strongly 20 21 76 24=100
25 20 Moderately 20 21 68 32=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused * 1 -- --
39 42 Katz/Lean Katz 40 41 79 21=100
17 23 Strongly 19 20 85 15=100
21 18 Moderately 20 20 72 28=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 1 -- --
1 * Other candidate 1 * -- --
15 15 Don't know/Refused 19 16 78 22=100
100 100 100 100
(N=400) (N=801) (N=546)(N=1264)
WAVE 1, ASK FORM 2 ONLY:
Q.10 Thinking about the election for Philadelphia Mayor, as of TODAY do you plan to
vote for John Street, the Democrat, for Sam Katz, the Republican, OR don't you plan
to vote in the election next month? [ROTATE ORDER OF CANDIDATES]
IF 'OTHER' (3), 'DON'T PLAN TO VOTE' (4), OR 'DON'T KNOW/REFUSED' (9) IN Q.9
OR Q.10, ASK:
Q.11 As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to Street, the Democrat or Katz, the Republican?
NOTE: RETAIN CANDIDATE ORDER FROM Q.9/10
Q.12 Do you support (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q.9 OR Q.10 STREET, KATZ) strongly or only
moderately?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
38 Street/Lean Street 32 40 72 28=100
18 Strongly 16 17 77 23=100
19 Moderately 15 22 70 30=100
1 Don't know/Refused 1 1 -- --
42 Katz/Lean Katz 43 40 83 17=100
18 Strongly 18 17 87 13=100
24 Moderately 24 23 80 20=100
* Don't know/Refused 1 0 0 0
1 Other candidate 2 1 -- --
DK/Ref/Don't plan
19 to vote 23 19 74 26=100
100 100 100
(N=401)
IF 'STREET' (1) OR 'KATZ' (2) IN Q.9, Q.10 OR Q.11 ASK:
Q.13 Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q.9, Q.10
OR Q.11 STREET, KATZ) OR more a vote against (INSERT NAME OF OTHER MAYORAL CANDIDATE)?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
Street Supporters
38 38 Pro-Street 39 37 73 27=100
9 9 Anti-Katz 6 10 69 31=100
4 3 Don't know/Refused 4 3 -- --
Katz Supporters
30 36 Pro-Katz 34 32 82 18=100
16 11 Anti-Street 14 15 76 24=100
3 3 Don't know/Refused 3 3 -- --
100 100 100 100
(N=647) (N=668) (N=566)(N=1407)
WAVE 1, ASK FORM 1 ONLY:
WAVE 2, ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.14 Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the election this (INSERT: November/Tuesday),
or not?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
93 94 Yes 93 97 77 23=100
3 4 No 4 2 -- --
4 2 Don't know/Refused 3 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
(N=400) (N=801) (N=546)(N=1264)
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.15 Next, I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in (INSERT: the election
this November/Tuesday's election) on a scale of 10 to 1. If 10 represents a
person who DEFINITELY will vote and 1 represents a person who definitely will
NOT vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
69 71 "10" -- Will vote 68 77 84 16=100
9 7 "9" 8 6 71 29=100
5 7 "8" 8 6 46 54=100
4 2 "7" 4 3
2 1 "6" 2 1
4 5 "5" 4 3 "7" thru "1" average
1 1 "4" * * 38 62=100
1 * "3" * 1
* * "2" 1 *
3 4 "1" -- Will NOT vote 3 2
2 2 Don't know/Refused 2 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
IF 'DON'T KNOW/REFUSED' (9) IN Q.11, ASK:
One last question about your opinion of the candidates...
Q.16 I have been asked to try to get a choice for Mayor from everyone I interview.
Even though you may not have made up your mind, could you make a guess so I will
have something to put down? The candidates are John Street, the Democrat and
Sam Katz, the Republican.
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
25 20 Street 21 19 -- --
22 19 Katz 15 21 -- --
2 2 Other -- DO NOT READ 1 2 -- --
1 0 Not going to vote 1 1 -- --
50 59 Don't know/Refused 62 57 81 19=100
100 100 100 100
(N=143) (N=131) (N=147)(N=278)
ASK Q.17-Q.19 ONLY OF THOSE WHO MIGHT VOTE (2 THROUGH 10 IN Q.15):
Now thinking about election day...
Q.17 All things considered, how difficult will it be for you to GET OUT AND VOTE in
the mayoral election (INSERT: next month/this Tuesday) -- very difficult, difficult,
easy, or very easy?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
3 1 Very difficult 3 2 "Difficult" Average
8 7 Difficult 6 7 54 46=100
33 34 Easy 34 30 70 30=100
55 57 Very easy 56 61 83 17=100
* * Neither * * -- --
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
(N=771) (N=764) (N=688)(N=1645)
ASKED WAVE 2 ONLY:
Q.18 Just your best guess, at what time of day will you get out and vote --
in the morning, the afternoon, or in the evening, OR haven't you thought about
this?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
42 Morning 40 47 82 18=100
23 Afternoon 21 23 78 22=100
28 Evening 31 25 71 29=100
Haven't thought
5 about this 5 4 -- --
2 Don't know/refused 3 1 -- --
100 100 100
(N=764) (N=329)(N=828)
ASKED WAVE 2 ONLY:
Q.19 How do you expect to get to the place where you vote? Will you walk, drive, or
use some other form of transportation, OR haven't you thought about this?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
63 Walk 61 67 79 21=100
30 Drive 32 27 81 19=100
Some other form
4 of transportation 4 4 -- --
Haven't thought
2 about this 2 1 -- --
1 Don't know/refused 1 1 -- --
100 100 100
(N=764) (N=329)(N=828)
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
ON ANOTHER SUBJECT....
Q.20 Regardless of who you support, who do you think will be elected Mayor of
Philadelphia (in November/next Tuesday), John Street, the Democrat or Sam Katz,
the Republican?
IF 'STREET' (1) OR 'KATZ' (2) IN Q.20 ASK:
Q.21 Do you think it will be a close race or will (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q.20 --
JOHN STREET, SAM KATZ) win by quite a lot?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
48 42 Street 42 47 74 26=100
11 9 Close race 8 9 70 30=100
36 33 Win by quite a lot 33 37 75 25=100
1 * Don't know/Refused 1 1 -- --
24 30 Katz 26 26 70 30=100
3 2 Close race 3 3 -- --
20 27 Win by quite a lot 22 23 73 27=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
* * Other (VOL.) * * -- --
28 28 Don't know/Refused 32 27 84 16=100
100 100 100 100
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
ON ANOTHER SUBJECT...
Q.22 So far during this campaign, have you learned enough about the candidates and
the issues to make an informed choice between the candidates, or have you found it
difficult to choose because you feel you have not learned enough from the campaign?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
Learned enough to make
58 68 an informed choice 65 67 79 21=100
Have not learn enough
38 28 from the campaign 31 30 68 32=100
4 4 Don't know/Refused 4 3 -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.23 Has anyone from a political party or a candidate's campaign contacted you about
the upcoming election, or not?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
15 26 Yes 19 24 85 15=100
84 73 No 79 75 73 27=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused 2 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.24 Has anyone from a church contacted you about the upcoming election, or not?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
4 4 Yes 3 3 -- --
96 95 No 97 96 76 24=100
* 1 Don't know/Refused * 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.25 Has any other person or group contacted you about the upcoming election, or not?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
11 14 Yes 13 14 83 17=100
89 85 No 86 86 75 25=100
* 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
Q.26, Q.27 AND D.1a ASK ALL:
ON ANOTHER SUBJECT...
Q.26 Can you please tell me whether you have moved in the last two years, or not?
IF YES ASK: Was this within the past six months, six months to one year ago OR
one to two years ago?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
8 9 Less than six months 6 4 -- --
7 6 Six months to one year 6 4 54 46=100
10 9 One to two years 9 7 62 38=100
Hasn't moved in
74 75 last two years 78 85 79 21=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
IF YES (1,2 or 3) IN Q.26 THEN ASK:
Q.27 Since moving, have you had the time to register or change your registration for
your new address?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
42 43 Yes 66 81 62 38=100
56 56 No 33 19 -- --
2 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
100 100 100 100
(N=315) (N=274) (N=153)(N=254)
INTERVIEWER ANSWER THIS QUESTION -- DO NOT READ:
D.1a Interviewer, please indicate whether you believe the respondent is white,
black, Asian or some other race?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
58 56 White 59 60 81 19=100
37 39 Black 35 36 69 31=100
1 1 Asian 1 1 -- --
3 3 Other or mixed race 3 2 -- --
1 1 Don't know/Refused 2 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
D.10 AND D.12 THROUGH D.16 ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY [WAVE 1 LISTED N=413 /
RDD N=801; WAVE 2 LISTED N=400 / RDD N=801; DIDN'T MATCHED N=721 / MATCHED N=1,694]:
D.10 In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
18 17 Republican 17 16 78 22=100
59 62 Democrat 54 65 77 23=100
17 15 Independent 18 15 67 33=100
2 2 No preference (VOL.) 2 2 -- --
* * Other party (VOL.) * * -- --
4 4 Don't know/Refused 9 2 -- --
100 100 100 100
IF 'REPUBLICAN' (1) OR 'DEMOCRAT' (2) IN Q.10 ASK:
D.12 Do you consider yourself a STRONG (INSERT CHOICE IN D.10 --
REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT), or NOT a strong (INSERT CHOICE IN D.10)?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
Republicans
9 6 Strong 7 8 83 17=100
8 10 Not strong 9 8 72 28=100
1 1 Don't know/Refused 1 * -- --
18% 17% 17% 16%
Democrats
36 39 Strong 34 42 79 21=100
21 20 Not strong 18 21 74 26=100
2 3 Don't know/Refused 2 2 -- --
59% 62% 54% 65%
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
D.13 In the 1996 Presidential election, did things come up which kept you from voting,
or did you happen to vote? (IF VOTED: Who did you vote for?)
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
52 64 Clinton 55 63 81 19=100
4 7 Dole 5 7 85 15=100
1 2 Perot 1 1 -- --
3 1 Other (VOL.) 2 2 -- --
Voted, don't
16 5 remember for whom 10 10 76 24=100
13 14 Did not vote 14 11 40 60=100
11 7 Don't know/Refused 13 6 82 18=100
100 100 100 100
D.14 And in the 1998 elections for CONGRESS, did things come up which kept you from
voting, or did you happen to vote?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
59 64 Yes, voted 58 70 85 15=100
30 28 No, didn't vote 30 24 50 50=100
1 1 No, too young to vote 1 * -- --
10 7 Don't know/Refused 11 6 77 23=100
100 100 100 100
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' YES IN D.14, ASK:
D.15 Are you absolutely certain you voted, or is there a chance you may not have?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
91 92 Absolutely certain 92 92 86 14=100
Did not vote/
8 6 may not have voted 7 6 79 21=100
1 2 Don't know/Refused 1 2 -- --
100 100 100 100
(N=500) (N=536) (N=417)(N=1180)
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' YES, CERTAIN, IN D.15, ASK:
D.16 Did you happen to vote for a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate for
U.S. Congress in your district?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
21 23 Republican 19 19 84 16=100
63 65 Democrat 63 67 85 15=100
1 2 Other/Independent 2 2 -- --
0 0 Didn't vote 0 * -- --
15 10 Don't know/Refused 16 12 90 10=100
100 100 100 100
(N=459) (N=495) (N=381)(N=1086)
ANSWER FOR REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY
INTERVIEWER ANSWER THIS QUESTION -- DO NOT READ:
D.27 Interviewer, what is your impression of the respondent's interest in the survey?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
36 50 Very interested 33 51 81 19=100
49 39 Somewhat interested 49 42 71 29=100
12 9 Not too interested 15 6 68 32=100
3 2 Not at all interested 3 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
INTERVIEWER ANSWER THIS QUESTION -- DO NOT READ:
D.28 Interviewer, what is your impression of the respondent's interest in the upcoming
mayoral election?
Matched Based on "Matched"
Wave 1 Wave 2 No Yes Voted Didn't Vote
43 58 Very interested 41 60 84 16=100
43 34 Somewhat interested 45 33 67 33=100
12 7 Not too interested 12 6 52 48=100
2 1 Not at all interested 2 1 -- --
100 100 100 100
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