The campaign for the 2000 elections presents both parties with substantial political challenges. In the presidential race, the two Democratic candidates continue to lag behind GOP frontrunner George W. Bush. Vice President Al Gore, in particular, is struggling with an image problem -- while most Americans see him as trustworthy, likable and caring, only one-third see Gore as a strong leader. But in face-offs between the two parties, the GOP enjoys no comparable edge over the Democratic Party, which has plenty of momentum of its own heading into the congressional elections. Indeed, one-in-five Bush supporters (20%) say they are likely to vote for a Democrat in their House district.

Favorable Views of Bush Widespread

Bush's pool of potential support across the typology speaks to the Texas governor's political strength at this point. Indeed, a majority of voters in all but two of the groups say there is at least some chance they would vote for Bush. While Bush enjoys the strongest support among the three Republican-leaning groups -- more than 80% in each say there is a chance they would support him -- he is popular among the two Independent groups as well. Some 81% of the New Prosperity Independents say there is a chance they would vote for Bush, and nearly two-thirds of the Disaffecteds (65%) say the same.

Notably, majorities in two Democratic-leaning groups also say they would consider a vote for Bush. Some 54% of the New Democrats and 53% of the Socially Conservative Democrats say there is at least some chance they will vote for Bush. Only among the two remaining Democratic groups -- the Liberals and the Partisan Poor -- does Bush fail to register positively with a majority of voters.

For most other presidential contenders as well, the base of potential support -- and their name recognition -- varies across the typology groups. Steve Forbes is viewed most favorably by the Staunch Conservatives, with half (51%) saying there is at least some chance they would support him. Some 41% of the New Prosperity Independents and 40% of Moderate Republicans also say they would consider voting for Forbes.

Notably, Arizona Senator John McCain draws the strongest support from two groups that agree on almost nothing politically -- Staunch Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Some 39% of Staunch Conservatives would consider voting for McCain, while 32% of Liberal Democrats might vote for him. McCain was much less well known this summer across most other typology groups, although he tends to be viewed favorably by those who have heard of him.

Indeed, while Steve Forbes has wider name-recognition, McCain enjoys more widespread appeal among voters who are familiar with both candidates -- especially among Independents and Democrats. Fully 61% of the New Prosperity Independents would consider voting for McCain, for example, while less than half (49%) say the same about Forbes. Another GOP contender, Gary Bauer, is known by only one-in-five voters (22%).

On the Democratic side, Bradley's biggest challenge is also familiarity. Among voters who are familiar with both Bradley and Gore, the Democratic-leaning groups tend to like Gore better, while the Republican and Independent groups prefer Bradley. Indeed, 31% of Staunch Conservatives have heard of Bradley and would consider voting for him, while just 9% say the same about Gore.

Reform Party Potentials

Patrick Buchanan and Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura are both fairly well known, with more than 80% of voters saying they have heard of each. Among voters who were able to rate both, Buchanan was viewed -- at least before his withdrawal from the GOP -- more favorably by Republican groups, while Ventura rates slightly better among Independent groups. For example, 44% of Staunch Conservatives say they would consider a vote for Buchanan, while just 32% say the same about Ventura. Among the New Prosperity Independents, on the other hand, one-third (32%) would consider voting for Ventura, while 26% say they might vote for Buchanan.

Overall, Buchanan and Ventura draw slightly more potential support from young voters, especially young men. Fully 47% of men under 30 say they would consider voting for Buchanan, for example, compared to 32% of all voters.

The Bush Coalition

Although Bush's lead in two-way matchups with Gore has fallen in some recent polls, Bush's consistent advantage throughout the past year underscores an image problem that continues to burden the vice president. In the July survey of nearly 3,000 registered voters, Bush led Gore by a 53%-41% margin. A short follow-up survey of 1,100 of these same voters in October found little change, with Bush ahead 54%-39%.

Bush's advantage stems in part from his strong support among Independents, coupled with defections among sizeable minorities in several of the Democratic groups. Bush not only draws solid support (91%) from Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, but he is favored by 21% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. In contrast, Gore draws support from 75% of voters aligned with his party and just 6% of those who are Republican or Republican-leaning.

Notably, the Democratic defectors give different reasons than the Republican voters for supporting Bush over Gore. Among the Republicans, the top reason for not liking Gore is his stand on issues (43%), followed by his leadership ability (23%) and personality (20%). Among the Democratic voters who defect to Bush, the top reason for not liking Gore is his personality (32%), followed by his stand on issues (25%) and leadership ability (25%).

In the typology, Bush draws nearly unanimous support from voters in each of the three Republican-leaning groups: the Populist Republicans (87% say they would vote for Bush), the Moderate Republicans (88%) and the Staunch Conservatives (96%). While majorities in the four Democratic-leaning groups all support Gore, these voters do not deliver the overwhelming numbers the Republican-leaning groups give to Bush. Indeed, four-in-ten (42%) Bush supporters in the two-way matchup with Gore come from one of the Independent or Democratic-leaning groups.

While nearly three-in-four New Democrats (74%) support Gore, another 22% say they are inclined to vote for Bush. The Socially Conservative Democrats are even less enthusiastic about their party's front-runner. Two-thirds (66%) say they will support Gore, 29% would vote for Bush. Equally important, Bush bests Gore within both of the Independent groups. More than half (56%) of the Disaffecteds and two-thirds (67%) of the New Prosperity Independents are Bush supporters.

Gore's strongest support comes from the Liberals -- 82% say they would vote for the vice president. Among the Partisan Poor, 78% support Gore.

Gore's Leadership Problem

So far, Gore fails to draw overwhelming support even among those who voted for Clinton three years ago. This is particularly evident among swing voters. Among Independents who voted for Clinton in the last election, for example, nearly four-in-ten (38%) say they would now vote for Bush over Gore. Some 30% of young voters who supported Clinton in 1996 say they'll vote for Bush.

Groups that have traditionally given the Democrats greater support also show signs of defection. More than one-in-four women (28%) who voted for Clinton in 1992 say they would choose Bush over Gore. Nearly as many Hispanic voters who previously supported Clinton say the same (25%). Among blacks who supported Clinton, Gore does slightly better -- just 15% say they would support Bush.

The big problem for Gore at this point lies with his image as a leader. Fully two-thirds of Americans (68%) say Bush is a "strong leader" -- more than twice as many as describe Gore the same way (33%). Gore is also seen less than Bush as someone with new ideas or as personally likeable. The vice president has a slight edge over Bush as someone who cares about people.

Indeed, voters across nearly all typology groups view Bush as a stronger leader than Gore -- more voters describe Bush as a strong leader than Gore in every group except the Partisan Poor. The disparate views of the two front-runners' leadership skills are especially noteworthy among the Independent groups, with more than two-thirds saying Bush is a strong leader and less than half as many saying the same about Gore.

Many voters also question Gore's strength when it comes to having new ideas. Within the Republican-leaning and Independent groups, Bush is more widely seen as a candidate with new ideas, although Democratic groups give slightly more credit to Gore than Bush on this question.

Support for Gore and Bush within the typology groups has been relatively stable throughout the past several months. A follow-up interview to the main July survey, conducted with more than 1,000 voters in October, found little movement in the two-way matchup.

Bradley Comes As Close

Although Democratic voters prefer Gore over Bradley as their party's nominee, Bradley does as least as well as Gore in a possible two-way matchup against Bush. Overall, voters prefer Bush over Bradley by a 54%-41% margin. That compares with a 54%-39% margin for Bush vs. Gore.

Although Bush now leads both Bradley and Gore across nearly every major demographic group, women divide much more narrowly between Bush and Gore than between Bush and Bradley. In a matchup with Gore, Bush leads by only 5 percentage points among women, with a notable 27-point edge among men. In a matchup with Bradley, however, Bush benefits from sizeable leads among both women (10 percentage points) and men (17 points).

Among Democratic voters, Bradley draws slightly less support than Gore does in two-way matchup against Bush (71% vs. 78%). But Bradley does slightly better among Independents (37% vs. 31%). Bradley also draws more support than Gore in the East (43% vs. 35%).

The potential for Bradley to do slightly better than Gore among Independent voters is underscored by the swing typology groups. For example, in a two-way matchup against Bush, Bradley draws roughly one-third of the vote from the Disaffecteds (34%) and the New Prosperity Independents (32%). This compares with lower support if Gore is the Democratic nominee -- drawing 24% of the vote among Disaffecteds, and 22% among the New Prosperity Independents.

The Good News for Gore?

Perhaps the best news for Gore is that so far, few Americans have begun to focus closely on the next presidential election. Just one-in-ten (10%) say they are following news about the campaign very closely. More than half (55%) say they are not following campaign news closely. Interest in the campaign is higher among men than women (14% vs. 6% following very closely) and among senior citizens (17%).

Asked who is most likely to win the presidency, if the candidates are Gore and Bush, 70% of Americans pick Bush. Notably, even half (50%) of Democrats think Bush would win an election against Gore. But predictions this early do not necessarily have a strong track record. For example, an October 1991 poll -- also conducted more than a year before the upcoming presidential election -- found 76% of Americans predicting then-President George Bush would be re-elected in 1992.