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Survey Reports
December 8, 2003
Primary Preview: Surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2003 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY SCENE-SETTER SURVEYS
National Survey Nov. 18 - Dec. 1, 2003 N=469 Democrat/Lean Dem Likely Voters
Iowa Survey Nov. 25 - Dec. 4, 2003 N=394 Likely Voters
New Hampshire Survey Nov. 18 - Dec. 1, 2003 N=585 Likely Voters
South Carolina Survey Nov. 18 - Dec. 1, 2003 N=566 Likely Voters
SAMPLE DESCRIPTIONS: (See "About the Surveys" for details)
THE NATIONAL SAMPLE IS BASED ON DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANERS (INDEPENDENTS
WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC) WHO ARE "VERY" OR "SOMEWHAT" LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE PRIMARY
OR CAUCUS IN THEIR STATE
THE IOWA SAMPLE EXCLUDES REGISTERED REPUBLICANS, AND IS BASED ON RESPONDENTS
WHO WILL "DEFINITELY" OR "PROBABLY" ATTEND THE CAUCUS IN THEIR AREA
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SAMPLE EXCLUDES REGISTERED REPUBLICANS, AND IS BASED ON
RESPONDENTS WHO "PLAN TO VOTE"
THE SOUTH CAROLINA SAMPLE DOES NOT MAKE ANY EXCLUSIONS BASED ON PARTY
IDENTIFICATION, AND IS BASED ON RESPONDENTS WHO "PLAN TO VOTE"
Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
[IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of
the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK]
IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE (1,2 IN Q.1) ASK:
Q.2 Do you (approve/disapprove) very strongly, or not so strongly?
National
Natl. IA NH SC Total^
20 16 26 37 Approve 50
8 6 14 26 Very strongly 34
12 9 11 10 Not so strongly 14
* 1 1 1 Don't know (VOL.) 2
72 78 64 56 Disapprove 40
58 64 54 45 Very strongly 30
13 13 9 10 Not so strongly 9
1 1 1 1 Don't know (VOL.) 1
8 6 10 7 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 10
100 100 100 100 100
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the mos recent general population survey
results are shown.
Q.3 How closely have you been following news about the race for the Democratic presidential
nomination very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?
National
Natl. IA NH SC Total
15 37 33 23 Very closely 11
37 45 42 34 Fairly closely 26
33 13 20 28 Not too closely 34
15 5 5 14 Not at all closely 28
* * * 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 1
100 100 100 100 100
REGIST These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or move
around so often they don't get a chance to re-register... Are you NOW registered to vote in
your precinct or election district, or haven't you been able to register so far?
REGICERT Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote, or is there a chance your
registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason?
Q.4 Are you now registered in your precinct or election district as a Republican, as a
Democrat, or haven't you declared a party affiliation?
NH REGISTERED VOTERS
Natl. IA NH SC Jan 1996
-- -- -- 17 Registered Republican 36
-- 74 42 45 Registered Democrat 24
-- 2 5 1 Other party (VOL.) 8
-- Haven't declared party affiliation/
-- 20 51 34 Independent (VOL.) 30
-- 4 2 3 Not sure / Refused (VOL.) 2
100 100 100 100
PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Natl. IA NH SC
-- 1 3 19 Republican
73 73 41 47 Democrat
25 24 54 27 Independent
1 * * 4 No Preference (VOL.)
1 1 0 * Other party (VOL.)
* 1 2 3 Don't know / Refused (VOL.)
100 100 100 100
Q.5 If there is a Democratic primary election or caucus in your state next year, how likely is
it that you will vote? Are you very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all
likely to vote in the Democratic primaries? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS NOT SURE WHETHER
THEY ARE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE, ENTER PUNCH 6]
Natl. IA NH SC
82 -- -- -- Very likely
18 -- -- -- Somewhat likely
-- -- -- -- Not too likely
-- -- -- -- Not at all likely
-- -- -- -- No primary (VOL.)
-- -- -- -- Not sure if eligible/Not eligible to participate (VOL.)
-- -- -- -- Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100
Q.5NH Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the January 27th New Hampshire Democratic primary, or
not?
Q.5SC Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the February 3rd South Carolina Democratic primary, or
not?
NH REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Natl. IA NH SC Jan 1996
-- -- 100 100 Yes 90
-- -- -- -- No 7
-- -- -- -- Not sure 3
100 100 100
Q.5IA Thinking about the upcoming Democratic caucuses in Iowa on January 19th, how likely would
you say it is that you'll attend the presidential caucus in your area? Will you definitely
attend, probably attend, probably not attend, or aren't you sure at this point?
Natl. IA NH SC
-- 47 -- -- Definitely
-- 53 -- -- Probably
-- -- -- -- Probably not
-- -- -- -- Not sure
-- -- -- -- Will not attend (VOL.)
-- -- -- -- Refused (VOL.)
100
M.3 Overall, what's your impression of the candidates running for the Democratic presidential
nomination? AS A GROUP, would you say they are excellent candidates, good candidates, fair
candidates or poor candidates?
NH LIKELY REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY VOTERS
Natl. IA NH SC Jan 1996
5 17 10 4 Excellent 5
41 58 50 34 Good 29
40 19 31 41 Fair 48
6 2 4 9 Poor 16
8 4 5 12 Don't know/Refused 2
100 100 100 100 100
Q.6 Which one of the following Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president?
(READ AND RANDOMIZE) [IF "Don't know" PROBE ONCE WITH: "Just as of today, would you say you
LEAN toward (READ). IF STILL DK, ENTER.]
IF CANDIDATE GIVEN (1 thru 10 in Q.6) ASK:
Q.7 And which of the Democratic candidates would be your second choice? [RE-READ LIST, IF
NECESSARY EXCLUDE NAME CITED IN Q.6]
IF NAMED CANDIDATE GIVEN (1 thru 9 in Q.6) ASK:
Q.8 Do you support (INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q.6) strongly or only moderately?
Natl. IA NH SC
1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
15 8 3 3 8 11 11 5 Wesley Clark
6 1 3 4 Strongly
9 2 5 7 Only Moderately/Don't know
15 15 29 21 34 15 7 8 Howard Dean
5 14 17 2 Strongly
10 15 17 5 Only Moderately/Don't know
5 3 5 8 4 6 16 7 John Edwards
1 2 2 6 Strongly
4 3 2 10 Moderate/Lean/Don't know
12 7 21 18 5 6 10 11 Richard Gephardt
4 10 1 3 Strongly
8 11 4 7 Only Moderately/Don't know
6 10 18 16 20 18 3 6 John Kerry
2 9 8 1 Strongly
4 9 12 2 Only Moderately/Don't know
2 2 4 1 1 1 * 0 Dennis Kucinich
1 3 * 0 Strongly
1 1 * * Only Moderately/Don't know
12 10 1 4 8 9 9 8 Joe Lieberman
4 0 2 1 Strongly
8 1 6 8 Only Moderately/Don't know
4 3 1 1 1 2 2 4 Carol Moseley Braun
2 * 0 1 Strongly
2 1 1 1 Only Moderately/Don't know
5 4 1 1 1 1 8 4 Al Sharpton
2 1 * 3 Strongly
3 0 * 5 Only Moderately/Don't know
1 1 * 1 1 * 1 * Other (DO NOT READ)
-- 4 -- 2 -- 4 -- 3 None/Wouldn't vote/No second choice
-- 23 -- 17 -- 17 -- 33 Respondent does not have a 1st choice
23 10 17 7 17 10 33 11 Don't Know/No answer (DO NOT READ)
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.9 Regardless of who you personally prefer, which Democratic candidate do you think has the
best chance of defeating George W. Bush in the November presidential election? (RE-READ
LIST IF NECESSARY)
Natl. IA NH SC
11 4 7 10 Wesley Clark
19 32 33 9 Howard Dean
2 2 1 7 John Edwards
7 17 4 10 Richard Gephardt
6 14 18 1 John Kerry
0 1 0 * Dennis Kucinich
8 * 5 8 Joe Lieberman
1 * 0 1 Carol Moseley Braun
2 0 * 4 Al Sharpton
3 1 2 2 Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
6 3 6 9 None has a chance (VOL. DO NOT READ)
35 26 24 39 Don't Know/No answer (VOL. DO NOT READ)
100 100 100 100
Q.10 If you had to choose, which would be more important to you in deciding who to support in
the (January/February) (primary/caucuses)? [READ AND ROTATE]
Natl. IA NH SC
49 53 62 65 Picking a candidate who comes closest to your positions on the issues
[or]
Picking a candidate who has the best chance of defeating George W.
44 40 32 25 Bush in November
1 1 2 1 Other (VOL.)
6 6 4 9 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100 100 100 100
Q.11 Are you more interested or less interested in politics this year than you were in 2000?
NH LIKELY REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY VOTERS
Natl. IA NH SC Jan 1996
49 46 45 51 More 48
28 14 17 27 Less 29
23 39 37 21 Same (VOL.) 22
0 1 1 1 Don't Know/Refused (VOL.) 1
100 100 100 100 100
Thinking about the upcoming presidential campaigns
Q.12 What one ISSUE would you most like to hear presidential candidates talk about?
[OPEN ENDED; MAY ACCEPT UP TO THREE MENTIONS]
National Total^
Natl. IA NH SC Sept 2003
28 22 22 21 Economy 45
24 27 21 19 Iraq/The war 11
23 28 35 19 Health care reform/Health care in general 18
8 9 10 9 Education/Education reform 5
7 7 5 18 Job situation/Unemployment 4
3 3 2 4 Social Security 2
3 4 4 3 Terrorism/Protecting the nation 15
3 4 5 3 Foreign Policy/Trade 2
3 3 1 5 Elderly/Senior Citizens/Medicare/Prescription Drugs 1
2 4 3 4 Budget deficit/National debt 1
1 1 1 1 Poverty/Homelessness 1
1 3 5 1 Environment/Energy 1
1 * 1 2 Abortion 1
7 10 8 11 Other [SPECIFY]
7 6 5 8 Don't know/Refused 8
34 28 25 37 NET: ECONOMY/JOB SITUATION/UNEMPLOYMENT
26 30 24 21 NET: IRAQ/TERRORISM
Note: Figures add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
NO QUESTIONS 13-15
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the most recent general population survey
results are shown.
Q.16 Are there any of the Democratic candidates who you think would do a particularly good
job of protecting the nation from terrorism? You can name more than one candidate if you
like. (RE-READ LIST IF NECESSARY; PROBE ONCE FOR ADDITIONAL)
Natl. IA NH SC
14 12 24 11 Wesley Clark
5 14 10 5 Howard Dean
1 4 3 5 John Edwards
5 11 4 6 Richard Gephardt
6 18 16 4 John Kerry
* 2 1 * Dennis Kucinich
6 1 5 5 Joe Lieberman
1 0 1 1 Carol Moseley Braun
3 * * 3 Al Sharpton
1 * 2 1 Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
9 18 8 6 All about the same (VOL. DO NOT READ)
25 15 21 25 No one would do a good job (VOL. DO NOT READ)
34 26 24 38 Don't Know/No answer (VOL. DO NOT READ)
Q.17 Are there any of the Democratic candidates who you DON'T think would do a good job of
protecting the nation from terrorism? (RE-READ LIST IF NECESSARY; PROBE ONCE
FOR ADDITIONAL)
Natl. IA NH SC
2 * 2 2 Wesley Clark
2 5 6 1 Howard Dean
* 2 2 1 John Edwards
3 2 2 1 Richard Gephardt
1 2 3 1 John Kerry
2 4 6 1 Dennis Kucinich
3 5 5 3 Joe Lieberman
3 5 4 3 Carol Moseley Braun
12 8 12 12 Al Sharpton
1 0 2 1 Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
7 6 8 7 All about the same (VOL. DO NOT READ)
35 41 38 30 No one would do a bad job (VOL. DO NOT READ)
34 30 25 43 Don't Know/No answer (VOL. DO NOT READ)
Note: Figures add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
Q.18 Are there any of the Democratic candidates who you think would do a particularly good job
of standing up for the Democratic Party's long-standing positions on such things as
protecting the interests of minorities, helping the poor and needy, and representing
working people? (RE-READ LIST IF NECESSARY; PROBE ONCE FOR ADDITIONAL)
Natl. IA NH SC
5 1 4 5 Wesley Clark
11 24 23 8 Howard Dean
3 6 6 11 John Edwards
10 28 8 10 Richard Gephardt
7 17 19 2 John Kerry
2 5 2 * Dennis Kucinich
10 2 8 7 Joe Lieberman
5 4 4 3 Carol Moseley Braun
9 3 3 11 Al Sharpton
1 * 1 1 Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
6 18 11 9 All the same (VOL. DO NOT READ)
10 7 8 11 No one would do a good job (VOL. DO NOT READ)
28 12 20 33 Don't Know/No answer (VOL. DO NOT READ)
Q.19 Are there any of the Democratic candidates who you DON'T think would do a particularly
good job of standing up for the Democratic Party's long-standing positions? (RE-READ LIST
IF NECESSARY; PROBE ONCE FOR ADDITIONAL)
Natl. IA NH SC
3 5 5 2 Wesley Clark
1 4 4 2 Howard Dean
1 1 1 1 John Edwards
2 2 2 2 Richard Gephardt
1 2 6 1 John Kerry
1 2 2 * Dennis Kucinich
4 6 5 3 Joe Lieberman
2 2 2 1 Carol Moseley Braun
5 5 6 8 Al Sharpton
1 0 * 1 Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
5 7 6 6 All the same (VOL. DO NOT READ)
36 41 38 33 No one would do a bad job (VOL. DO NOT READ)
38 29 29 42 Don't Know/No answer (VOL. DO NOT READ)
Note: Figures add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
Thinking about your own personal finances...
Q.20 How would you rate your own personal financial situation? Would you say you are in
excellent shape, good shape, only fair shape or poor shape?
National Total^
Natl. IA NH SC Sept 2003
6 8 6 6 Excellent shape 10
34 50 49 33 Good shape 38
43 31 32 38 Only fair shape 36
16 9 11 22 Poor shape 15
1 2 2 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 1
100 100 100 100 100
Q.21 A year from now, do you expect that economic conditions in the country as a whole will
be better than they are at present, or worse, or just about the same as now?
National Total
Natl. IA NH SC Sept 2003
30 30 37 40 Better 37
20 17 16 19 Worse 17
46 47 40 36 Same 43
4 6 7 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 3
100 100 100 100 100
Q.22 Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of
jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find?
National Total
Natl. IA NH SC Oct 2003
18 14 20 17 Plenty of jobs available 24
75 73 63 76 Jobs are difficult to find 66
5 8 11 5 Lots of some jobs, few of others (VOL.) 5
2 5 6 2 Don't know/Refused 5
100 100 100 100 100
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the most recent general population survey
results are shown.
Now thinking about Iraq
Q.23 Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military
force against Iraq?
National Total^
Natl. IA NH SC Oct 2003
32 26 40 43 Right decision 60
60 68 52 47 Wrong decision 33
8 6 8 10 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 7
100 100 100 100 100
Q.24 How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going? [READ IN ORDER]
National Total
Natl. IA NH SC Oct 2003
7 3 6 8 Very well 16
29 28 33 36 Fairly well 44
36 42 33 33 Not too well 25
26 23 24 19 Not at all well 11
2 4 4 4 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 4
100 100 100 100 100
Q.25 Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until a stable government
is established there, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as
possible?
National Total
Natl. IA NH SC Oct 2003
47 56 57 48 Keep troops in Iraq 58
48 38 38 48 Bring troops home 39
5 6 5 4 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 3
100 100 100 100 100
Q.26 Do you think many of the Democratic leaders in Washington voted for the war
[READ AND ROTATE]
Natl. IA NH SC
47 51 57 52 Because they thought is was the right thing to do
[or did they vote for the war]
36 30 29 31 Because they were afraid to stand up and oppose the president
7 7 4 5 Mixed/Other (VOL. DO NOT READ)
10 12 10 12 Don't know/Refused (VOL. DO NOT READ)
100 100 100 100
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the most recent general population survey
results are shown.
Q.27 I'd like your opinion of some programs and proposals being discussed in this country
today. Please tell me if you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose each one.
The first one is [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE]
Natl. IA NH SC National Total^
a. Making it more DIFFICULT for Aug 2003
a woman to get an abortion
11 9 8 15 Strongly favor 17
12 16 11 15 Favor 19
32 34 31 32 Oppose 27
37 31 43 26 Strongly Oppose 30
8 10 7 12 Don't know/Refused 7
100 100 100 100 100
b. Allowing gays and lesbians
to marry legally Oct 2003
15 14 18 6 Strongly favor 9
25 28 34 15 Favor 23
19 27 22 25 Oppose 24
33 21 16 47 Strongly Oppose 35
8 10 10 7 Don't know/Refused 9
100 100 100 100 100
c. Providing more generous government
assistance to the poor March 2002
37 27 32 42 Strongly favor 24
45 55 49 35 Favor 43
11 11 14 13 Oppose 22
4 2 2 5 Strongly Oppose 5
3 5 3 5 Don't know/Refused 5
100 100 100 100 100
Q.28 What do you think is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns,
OR to control gun ownership?
National Total
Natl. IA NH SC May 2000
30 29 27 35 Protect rights of Americans to own guns 38
65 66 67 60 Control gun ownership 57
5 5 6 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 5
100 100 100 100 100
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the most recent general population survey
results are shown.
Q.29 In general, do you think that free trade agreements like NAFTA, (the North American Free
Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade Organization), have been a good thing or a bad
thing for the United States? [INTERVIEWER: READ OUT FULL NAMES ONLY IF RESPONDENT IS
UNCERTAIN]
Natl. IA NH SC
32 26 31 29 Good thing
44 53 44 44 Bad thing
24 21 25 27 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100 100 100 100
Q.30 Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family Do you think these free trade
agreements (like NAFTA and the WTO) have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt,
or definitely hurt the financial situation of you and your family? [INTERVIEWER: READ OUT
FULL NAMES ONLY IF RESPONDENT IS UNCERTAIN]
Natl. IA NH SC
1 2 2 2 Definitely helped
25 18 22 19 Probably helped
29 33 26 30 Probably hurt
16 13 13 23 Definitely hurt
13 20 19 11 Neither (VOL.)
16 14 18 15 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100 100 100 100
Q.31 Do you think that using military force against countries that may seriously threaten our
country, but have not attacked us, can often be justified, sometimes be justified, rarely
be justified, or never be justified?
National Total^
Natl. IA NH SC Aug 2003
10 5 9 13 Often justified 20
40 35 41 45 Sometimes justified 43
26 36 31 15 Rarely justified 19
19 20 16 20 Never justified 13
5 4 3 7 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 5
100 100 100 100 100
Q.32 Which comes closer to your view about the tax cuts passed under President Bush over the past
few years? [READ IN ORDER]
Natl. IA NH SC
11 5 12 18 All of the tax cuts should remain in place
42 49 50 34 Tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, while others stay in place
36 41 33 38 All of the tax cuts should be repealed
11 5 5 10 Don't know/Refused (VOL. DO NOT READ)
100 100 100 100
NO QUESTIONS 33-34
^ Where applicable, national totals representing the most recent general population survey
results are shown.
Q.35 Do you use a computer at your workplace, at school, at home or anywhere else on at least
an occasional basis? IF "1, YES" (USE A COMPUTER) IN Q.35, ASK:
Q.36 Do you ever go online to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send and receive
email?
Natl. IA NH SC
73 75 84 69 Yes, computer user
63 68 79 57 Goes online
10 7 5 12 Doesn't go online
0 0 0 0 Don't know
27 25 16 31 Not a computer user
* 0 0 * Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100 100 100 100
Q.37 So far in the Democratic primary campaign, have you... (INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE ITEMS a.
THRU c. FOLLOWED BY RANDOMIZED ITEMS d. THRU f. ASK ITEMS d THRU f. ONLY IF
ONLINE [1 in Q.36])
Natl. IA NH SC
a. Been called on the telephone by a campaign
18 74 55 16 Yes
82 26 44 83 No
* * 1 1 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100
b. Contributed money to any of the Democratic presidential candidates
7 20 7 8 Yes
93 79 92 91 No
0 1 1 1 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100
c. Attended a campaign event
-- 34 18 9 Yes
-- 66 82 91 No
-- * 0 * Don't know/Refused
100 100 100
d. Visited any of the candidates' websites
-- 22 20 7 Yes
-- 46 59 50 No
-- * 0 * Don't know/Refused
-- 32 21 43 Doesn't go online
100 100 100
e. Sent or received e-mails about the candidates or campaigns
10 27 22 8 Yes
53 41 57 48 No
0 * * 1 Don't know/Refused
37 32 21 43 Doesn't go online
100 100 100 100
f. Participated in online discussions or "blogs" about the campaign
-- 6 6 3 Yes
-- 61 72 54 No
-- 1 1 0 Don't know/Refused
-- 32 21 43 Doesn't go online
100 100 100
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