Hot Topics
Survey Reports
March 29, 2004
Bush Support Steady in Wake of Clarke Criticisms
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
LATE MARCH 2004 POLITICAL SURVEY
FINAL TOPLINE
March 22 - 28, 2004
N=1,501
Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as
president? [IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or
disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? IF STILL
DEPENDS ENTER AS DK]
Dis- Don't
Approve approve know
Late March, 2004 47 44 9=100
Mid-March, 2004 46 47 7=100
February, 2004 48 44 8=100
Mid-January, 2004 56 34 10=100
Early January, 2004 58 35 7=100
2003
December, 2003 57 34 9=100
November, 2003 50 40 10=100
October, 2003 50 42 8=100
September, 2003 55 36 9=100
Mid-August, 2003 56 32 12=100
Early August, 2003 53 37 10=100
Mid-July, 2003 58 32 10=100
Early July, 2003 60 29 11=100
June, 2003 62 27 11=100
May, 2003 65 27 8=100
April 10-16, 2003 72 22 6=100
April 9, 2003 74 20 6=100
April 2-7, 2003 69 25 6=100
March 28-April 1, 2003 71 23 6=100
March 25-27, 2003 70 24 6=100
March 20-24, 2003 67 26 7=100
March 13-16, 2003 55 34 11=100
February, 2003 54 36 10=100
January, 2003 58 32 10=100
2002
December, 2002 61 28 11=100
Late October, 2002 59 29 12=100
Early October, 2002 61 30 9=100
Mid-September, 2002 67 22 11=100
Early September, 2002 63 26 11=100
Late August, 2002 60 27 13=100
August, 2002 67 21 12=100
Late July, 2002 65 25 10=100
July, 2002 67 21 12=100
June, 2002 70 20 10=100
April, 2002 69 18 13=100
Early April, 2002 74 16 10=100
February, 2002 78 13 9=100
January, 2002 80 11 9=100
Mid-November, 2001 84 9 7=100
Early October, 2001 84 8 8=100
Late September, 2001 86 7 7=100
Mid-September, 2001 80 9 11=100
Early September, 2001 51 34 15=100
August, 2001 50 32 18=100
July, 2001 51 32 17=100
June, 2001 50 33 17=100
May, 2001 53 32 15=100
April, 2001 56 27 17=100
March, 2001 55 25 20=100
February, 2001 53 21 26=100
NO QUESTION 2
Q.3 How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election . . . Quite a lot
or only a little?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]:
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/
A lot Some Little None Ref.
Late March, 2004 60 4 31 4 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 65 2 31 2 *=100
Early November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
Early October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
Q.4 All in all, have you been hearing too much, too little, or about the right amount about
the presidential campaign so far?
Mid-March 2004
Total RVs Total RVs
28 30 Too much 31 33
17 14 Too little 18 15
48 50 Right amount 48 49
7 6 Don't know/Refused 3 3
100 100 100 100
(N=1168)
Q.5 Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose
between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat or Ralph Nader [READ;
ROTATE KERRY AND BUSH WITH NADER ALWAYS LAST] who would you vote for? IF OTHER OR DK
(Q.5=4,9), ASK:
Q.5a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.5]?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]: Mid-March
Form 1 Form 2 2004
44 George W. Bush, the Republican/Lean Bush 44 44 42
43 John Kerry, the Democrat/Lean Kerry 43 42 49
6 Ralph Nader/Lean Nader 5 6 4
7 Other/DK (VOL.) 8 8 5
100 100 100 100
N= (555) (613)
NOTE ON ROTATION: In Form 1 Q5/5a was asked BEFORE Q6/6a. In Form 2 Q5/5a was asked AFTER
Q6/6a.
Q.6 Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and you had to choose
between George W. Bush, the Republican and John Kerry, the Democrat [READ, ROTATE].
Who would you vote for? IF OTHER OR DK (3,9 IN Q.6) ASK:
Q.6a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.6]?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]:
Mid Late Early Early
March Feb Feb Jan Oct March March March May
2004 2004 2004 2004 2003 2000 1996 1992 1988
46 Bush/Lean Bush 43 44 47 52 50 43 Bush 41 Dole 49 Bush, Sr. 40 Bush, Sr.
47 Kerry/Lean Kerry 52 48 47 41 42 49 Gore 53 Clinton 44 Clinton 53 Dukakis
7 Other/DK (VOL.) 5 8 6 7 8 8 6 7 7
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NOTE: Q.7 THRU Q.10 ARE LINKED TO BOTH Q.6F1/Q.6aF1 AND Q.6F2/Q.6aF2
THOSE WHO CHOSE JOHN KERRY (IN Q.6/Q.6a) ASK:
Q.7 Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR John Kerry or more a vote AGAINST
George W. Bush? THOSE WHO CHOSE GEORGE W. BUSH (IN Q.6/Q.6a) ASK:
Q.8 Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST
John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]:
----------- KERRY ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2004 Total Kerry Bush decid Total Bush Kerry decid DK
Late Mar 47 17 27 3 46 36 8 2 7=100
Mid Mar 52 21 29 2 43 34 7 2 5=100
Feb 47 15 30 2 47 39 6 2 6=100
----------- GORE ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2000 Total Gore Bush decid Total Bush Gore decid DK
Nov 45 29 14 2 41 27 12 2 14=100
Sept 47 30 14 3 41 24 14 3 12=100
----------- CLINTON ------------ -------- DOLE ----------- -------------PEROT----------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other
1996 Total Clinton other decid Total Dole other decid Total Perot Other decid /DK
Nov 51 33 15 3 32 15 15 2 9 4 5 * 8=100
Oct 51 33 16 2 34 15 18 1 8 4 4 * 7=100
Sept 52 35 15 2 34 16 17 1 8 3 5 0 6=100
Mar 53 30 20 3 41 15 25 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
---------- CLINTON ---------- --------- BUSH -------- --------PEROT----------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1992 Total Clinton other decid Total Bush other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Oct 48 23 22 3 35 19 13 3 8 3 5 * 9=100
Sept 53 21 29 3 38 20 16 2 -- -- -- -- 9=100
Aug 57 27 28 2 37 20 16 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
Mar 44 13 29 2 49 32 15 2 -- -- -- -- 7=100
---------- DUKAKIS ---------- ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1988 Total Dukakis Bush decid Total Bush Dukakis decid DK
Oct 42 23 15 4 50 31 16 3 8=100
Sept 44 21 19 4 50 31 15 4 6=100
May 53 23 26 4 40 26 11 3 7=100
THOSE WHO DID NOT CHOOSE KERRY IN Q.6/6a ASK:
Q.9 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John Kerry in November, or have
you definitely decided not to vote for him?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]:
Mid Late Early ------- Gore 2000 --------- - Clinton -
March Feb Feb Late Mid- Early July May
2004 2004 2004 Nov Oct Oct Oct Sept June 1996 1992
13 Chance might vote for him 13 13 15 8 9 10 11 13 14 8 11
37 Decided not to vote for him 32 36 33 41 44 40 38 35 34 36 38
3 Don't know/Refused 3 3 5 6 4 5 7 5 6 4 6
53% 48% 52% 53% 55% 57% 55% 56% 53% 54% 48% 55%
THOSE WHO DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.6/6a ASK:
Q.10 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush in November, or
have you definitely decided not to vote for him?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1168]:
Mid Late Early -------- Bush 2000 --------- Dole Bush,Sr
March Feb Feb Late Mid- Early July May
2004 2004 2004 Nov Oct Oct Oct Sept June 1996 1992
11 Chance might vote for him 11 10 10 8 10 12 11 15 15 15 8
40 Decided not to vote for him 44 43 41 44 41 40 39 38 33 40 40
3 Don't know/Refused 2 3 2 7 4 5 7 6 6 3 5
54% 57% 56% 53% 59% 55% 57% 57% 59% 54% 58% 53%
NO QUESTIONS 11-19
ASK FORM 1 ONLY:
Q.20F1 As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes John
Kerry or George W. Bush. (INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=555]: (VOL.)
George John (VOL.) Both
W. Bush Kerry Neither Equally DK/Ref.
a. Would use good judgment in a crisis 46 36 2 3 13=100
Mid-March, 2004 48 39 2 5 6=100
Late-October, 2000 43 42 2 5 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 5 8 5=100
Early October, 2000 36 43 4 10 7=100
September, 2000 38 44 3 8 7=100
June, 2000 44 37 5 6 8=100
b. Personally likable 40 40 5 8 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 40 44 4 8 4=100
Late-October, 2000 48 39 5 5 3=100
Mid-October, 2000 44 38 5 9 4=100
Early October, 2000 41 38 4 12 5=100
September, 2000 37 44 3 12 4=100
June, 2000 42 36 7 9 6=100
c. Honest and truthful 37 38 12 3 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 35 39 16 5 5=100
Late-October, 2000 43 32 15 5 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 38 30 19 6 7=100
Early October, 2000 36 32 17 8 7=100
September, 2000 35 37 13 9 6=100
June, 2000 35 31 19 7 8=100
d. Cares about people like me 38 42 9 3 8=100
Mid-March, 2004 34 48 8 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 40 43 8 5 4=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 7 7 4=100
Early October, 2000 35 44 11 5 5=100
September, 2000 31 47 9 7 6=100
e. A strong leader 51 33 4 2 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 52 34 4 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 44 41 6 6 3=100
Mid-October, 2000 42 39 9 6 4=100
Early October, 2000 41 38 7 10 4=100
September, 2000 44 38 7 6 5=100
f. Can get things done 49 30 4 4 13=100
Mid-March, 2004 50 34 4 4 8=100
Late-October, 2000 43 39 5 6 7=100
Mid-October, 2000 41 39 6 8 6=100
Early October, 2000 37 38 5 11 9=100
September, 2000 40 40 4 8 8=100
June, 2000 43 33 8 6 10=100
g A typical politician 36 39 2 17 6=100
Mid-March, 2004 38 38 1 19 4=100
Late-October, 2000 29 51 2 15 3=100
Mid-October, 2000 29 45 3 19 4=100
September, 2000 37 37 2 20 4=100
June, 2000 34 37 1 22 7=100
h. Willing to take a stand,
even if it's unpopular 59 28 3 3 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 63 27 1 5 4=100
Late-October, 2000 49 35 7 4 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 49 35 6 5 5=100
Early October, 2000 43 35 8 6 8=100
September, 2000 45 37 8 5 5=100
June, 2000 46 32 9 5 8=100
i. Is down to earth 44 36 7 5 8=100
Mid-March, 2004 43 42 5 5 5=100
May, 2000 41 46 5 2 6=100
ASK FORM 2 ONLY:
Q.21F2 Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates George W.
Bush or John Kerry do you think would do the best job of (INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE. IF
RESPONDENT MENTIONS ANYONE OTHER THAN BUSH OR KERRY PROBE ONCE: "IF YOU HAD TO
CHOOSE BETWEEN BUSH AND KERRY. . . " ) ?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=613]:
George John (VOL.)
W. Bush Kerry Neither DK/Ref.
a. Improving economic conditions 39 44 6 11=100
Mid-March, 2004 37 53 2 8=100
Late-October, 2000 40 46 6 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 49 3 11=100
Early October, 2000 35 47 6 12=100
September, 2000 38 46 5 11=100
June, 2000 38 41 5 16=100
March, 2000 42 46 4 8=100
b. Improving the health care system 33 46 6 15=100
Mid-March, 2004 29 57 4 10=100
Late-October, 2000 38 47 5 10=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 48 4 11=100
Early October, 2000 36 49 5 10=100
September, 2000 32 51 6 11=100
June, 2000 31 44 6 19=100
March, 2000 31 51 6 12=100
c. Improving education 39 43 5 13=100
Mid-March, 2004 36 52 3 9=100
Late-October, 2000 41 45 4 10=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 46 3 11=100
Early October, 2000 41 43 6 10=100
September, 2000 39 45 4 12=100
June, 2000 34 44 5 17=100
March, 2000 42 44 3 11=100
d. Improving the job situation 37 45 7 11=100
Mid-March, 2004 30 57 5 8=100
e. Making wise decisions about
U.S. trade policies 38 39 5 18=100
Mid-March, 2004 38 48 3 11=100
July, 1996 40 40 6 14=100
f. Making wise decisions about
what to do in Iraq 49 37 4 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 47 45 2 6=100
g. Defending the country from future
terrorist attacks 53 29 4 14=100
Mid-March, 2004 57 32 4 7=100
h. Making wise decisions about foreign policy 44 38 4 14=100
Mid-March, 2004 44 45 3 8=100
March, 2000 40 46 4 10=100
Early September, 1996 42 44 6 8=100
July, 1996 44 42 4 10=100
October, 1992 53 27 9 11=100
ASK ALL:
N.1 How much, if anything, have you heard about a former aide to president Bush who claims
that the president ignored serious warnings prior to the Sept 11 terrorist attacks a
lot, a little, or nothing at all?
42 A lot
47 A little
10 Nothing at all
1 Don't know/Refused
100
Next >>
