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Survey Reports
August 12, 2004
Public Faults Bush on Economy - 55% Say Jobs are Scarce
Questionnaire (Part 1)
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
AUGUST 2004 NEWS INTEREST INDEX
FINAL TOPLINE
August 5 - 10, 2004
N=1512
Q.1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
[IF DK ENTER AS DK. IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Overall do you approve or disapprove of
the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? IF STILL DEPENDS ENTER AS DK]
Dis- Don't
Approve approve know
August, 2004 46 45 9=100
July, 2004 46 46 8=100
June, 2004 48 43 9=100
May, 2004 44 48 8=100
Late April, 2004 48 43 9=100
Early April, 2004 43 47 10=100
Late March, 2004 47 44 9=100
Mid-March, 2004 46 47 7=100
February, 2004 48 44 8=100
Mid-January, 2004 56 34 10=100
Early January, 2004 58 35 7=100
2003
December, 2003 57 34 9=100
November, 2003 50 40 10=100
October, 2003 50 42 8=100
September, 2003 55 36 9=100
Mid-August, 2003 56 32 12=100
Early August, 2003 53 37 10=100
Mid-July, 2003 58 32 10=100
Early July, 2003 60 29 11=100
June, 2003 62 27 11=100
May, 2003 65 27 8=100
April 10-16, 2003 72 22 6=100
April 9, 2003 74 20 6=100
April 2-7, 2003 69 25 6=100
Mar 28-Apr 1, 2003 71 23 6=100
March 25-27, 2003 70 24 6=100
March 20-24, 2003 67 26 7=100
March 13-16, 2003 55 34 11=100
February, 2003 54 36 10=100
January, 2003 58 32 10=100
2002
December, 2002 61 28 11=100
Late October, 2002 59 29 12=100
Early October, 2002 61 30 9=100
Mid-September, 2002 67 22 11=100
Early Sept, 2002 63 26 11=100
Late August, 2002 60 27 13=100
August, 2002 67 21 12=100
Late July, 2002 65 25 10=100
July, 2002 67 21 12=100
June, 2002 70 20 10=100
April, 2002 69 18 13=100
Early April, 2002 74 16 10=100
February, 2002 78 13 9=100
January, 2002 80 11 9=100
2001
Mid-November, 2001 84 9 7=100
Early October, 2001 84 8 8=100
Late September, 2001 86 7 7=100
Mid-September, 2001 80 9 11=100
Early Sept, 2001 51 34 15=100
August, 2001 50 32 18=100
July, 2001 51 32 17=100
June, 2001 50 33 17=100
May, 2001 53 32 15=100
April, 2001 56 27 17=100
March, 2001 55 25 20=100
February, 2001 53 21 26=100
ASK ALL:
Q.2 Now I will read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past month. As
I read each item, tell me if you happened to follow this news story very closely, fairly
closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE WITH ITEMS a AND
b FIRST, FOLLOWED BY RANDOMIZED ITEMS c THRU f]
Very Fairly Not too Not at all
Closely Closely Closely Closely DK/Ref
a. News about candidates for the 2004
presidential election 32 38 16 14 *=100
July, 2004 29 37 18 15 1=100
June, 2004 28 34 19 18 1=100
April, 2004 31 33 19 16 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 35 34 18 13 *=100
Late February, 2004 24 40 23 12 1=100
Early February, 2004 29 37 20 13 1=100
Mid-January, 2004 16 30 27 26 1=100
Early January, 2004 14 32 30 23 1=100
December, 2003 16 26 27 30 1=100
November, 2003 11 26 34 28 1=100
October, 2003 12 27 28 32 1=100
September, 2003 17 25 30 27 1=100
Mid-August, 2003 12 27 27 33 1=100
May, 2003 8 19 31 41 1=100
January, 2003 14 28 29 28 1=100
September, 2000 22 42 21 15 *=100
July, 2000 21 38 20 20 1=100
June, 2000 23 32 23 21 1=100
April, 2000 18 39 22 20 1=100
March, 2000 26 41 19 13 1=100
February, 2000 26 36 21 17 *=100
January, 2000 19 34 28 18 1=100
Early September, 1996 24 36 23 17 *=100
July, 1996 22 40 23 14 1=100
April, 1996 23 35 25 17 *=100
March, 1996 26 41 20 13 *=100
January, 1996 10 34 31 24 1=100
August, 1992 (RVs) 36 51 11 2 0=100
July, 1992 20 45 26 9 *=100
May, 1992 32 44 16 8 *=100
March, 1992 35 40 16 9 *=100
January, 1992 11 25 36 27 1=100
August, 1988 (RVs) 39 45 13 3 *=100
May, 1988 22 46 23 6 3=100
b. News about the current situation
in Iraq 39 42 12 6 1=100
July, 2004 43 40 11 6 *=100
June, 2004 39 42 12 6 1=100
April, 2004 54 33 8 5 *=100
Mid-March, 2004 47 36 12 4 1=100
Early February, 2004 47 38 10 4 1=100
Mid-January, 2004 48 39 9 4 *=100
December, 2003 44 38 11 6 1=100
November, 2003 52 33 9 5 1=100
October, 2003 38 40 14 7 1=100
September, 2003 50 33 10 6 1=100
Mid-August, 2003 45 39 10 5 1=100
Early July, 2003 37 41 13 8 1=100
June, 2003 46 35 13 6 *=100
May, 2003 63 29 6 2 *=100
April 11-16, 2003 47 40 10 2 1=100
April 2-7, 2003 54 34 9 2 1=100
March 20-24, 2003 57 33 7 2 1=100
March 13-16, 2003 62 27 6 4 1=100
February, 2003 62 25 8 4 1=100
January, 2003 55 29 10 4 2=100
December, 2002 51 32 10 6 1=100
Late October, 2002 53 33 8 5 1=100
Early October, 2002 60 28 6 5 1=100
Early September, 2002 48 29 15 6 2=100
c. The Democratic convention 23 26 19 31 1=100
September, 1996 (Rep. and Dem.) 14 31 29 26 *=100
August, 1988 (RVs) (Democratic) 30 29 22 19 *=100
August, 1988 (RVs) (Republican) 27 32 24 17 0=100
d. Preparations for the summer
Olympics in Athens, Greece 10 22 29 38 1=100
February, 2002 (Winter/Salt Lake City) 22 30 21 26 1=100
Early October, 2000 (Summer/Sydney) 27 28 24 21 *=100
Early September, 1996 (Summer/Atlanta) 32 34 20 14 *=100
July, 1996 (Summer/Atlanta) 45 30 13 11 1=100
February, 1992 (Winter Olympics) 33 30 19 17 1=100
e. The high price of gasoline these days 52 29 10 8 1=100
July, 2004 56 25 11 7 1=100
June, 2004 58 26 9 6 1=100
April, 2004 46 30 15 8 1=100
Early April, 2004 58 23 10 8 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 47 27 14 10 2=100
September, 2003 45 27 15 11 1=100
March, 2003 52 27 11 9 1=100
February, 2003 53 25 12 9 1=100
June, 2001 56 31 7 5 1=100
May, 2001 61 26 6 6 1=100
Early October, 2000 56 25 12 6 1=100
June, 2000 61 25 9 5 *=100
March, 2000 58 28 10 4 *=100
October, 1990 62 26 8 4 *=100
September, 1990 56 28 11 5 *=100
August, 1990 57 27 10 5 1=100
f. The recent "code orange" alert about the
increased risk of a terrorist attack 34 36 18 11 1=100
Mid-January, 2004 35 38 16 10 1=100
February, 2003 39 35 16 9 1=100
Early September, 2002 39 29 16 15 1=100
Q.3 How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election... Quite a lot or only
a little?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/
A lot Some Little None Ref.
August, 2004 69 2 26 2 1=100
July, 2004 67 2 28 2 1=100
June, 2004 58 3 36 2 1=100
May, 2004 59 6 30 4 1=100
Late March, 2004 60 4 31 4 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 65 2 31 2 *=100
2000 Early November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
Early October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
April, 2000 45 7 41 7 *=100
1996 November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
1992 October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
1988 Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
L.1 Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Early Late Mid- Early Late Early Late
Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Sept Nov
2002 2000 2000 2000 2000 1998 1998 1996 1996 1994
88 Yes 86 83 81 82 84 86 87 85 85 91
12 No 14 17 19 18 16 14 13 15 15 9
0 Don't know/Ref. * * * 0 * * * * * *
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.4 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [INSERT, ROTATE
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS WITH NADER TICKET LAST] for the Republican
ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John
Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?
IF CHOSE BUSH, KERRY OR NADER IN Q.4, ASK:
Q.4a Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.4, LAST NAME ONLY, DO NOT
READ VP CHOICE) strongly or only moderately?
IF OTHER OR DK (Q.4=4,9), ASK:
Q.4b As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.4]?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Late Mid- Early
July June May Mar Mar Sept July Sept July Oct June
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2000 2000 1996 1996 1992 1992
45 Bush/Lean Bush 44 46 43 44 42 41 42 Bush 34 34 Dole 35 31 Bush, Sr
32 Strongly 21 17 14
13 Only moderately 19 17 21
* Don't know 1 * --
47 Kerry/Lean Kerry 46 42 46 43 49 47 41 Gore 52 44 Clinton 48 28 Clinton
28 Strongly 25 26 23
19 Only moderately 21 26 25
* Don't know 1 0 --
2 Nader/Lean Nader 3 6 6 6 4 2 6 Nader 8 16 Perot 8 36 Perot
6 Other/Don't know 7 6 5 7 5 10 11 6 6 9 5
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
THOSE WHO CHOSE KERRY/EDWARDS (IN Q.4/Q.4b) ASK:
Q.5a Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR John Kerry or more a vote AGAINST
George W. Bush?
THOSE WHO CHOSE BUSH/CHENEY (IN Q.4/Q.4b) ASK:
Q.5b Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST
John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
----------- KERRY ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2004 Total Kerry Bush decid Total Bush Kerry decid DK
Aug 47 20 24 3 45 34 8 3 8=100
June 46 17 27 2 48 35 11 2 6=10 0
May 50 15 32 3 45 33 10 2 5=100
Late Mar 47 17 27 3 46 36 8 2 7=100
Mid-Mar 52 21 29 2 43 34 7 2 5=100
Feb 47 15 30 2 47 39 6 2 6=100
----------- GORE ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2000 Total Gore Bush decid Total Bush Gore decid DK
Nov 45 29 14 2 41 27 12 2 14=100
Sept 47 30 14 3 41 24 14 3 12=100
----------- CLINTON ------------ ----------- DOLE -------- -------------PEROT----------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1996 Total Clinton other decid Total Dole other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Nov 51 33 15 3 32 15 15 2 9 4 5 * 8=100
Oct 51 33 16 2 34 15 18 1 8 4 4 * 7=100
Sept 52 35 15 2 34 16 17 1 8 3 5 0 6=100
Mar 53 30 20 3 41 15 25 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
---------- CLINTON ---------- ---------- BUSH --------- -----------PEROT-------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1992 Total Clinton other decid Total Bush other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Oct 48 23 22 3 35 19 13 3 8 3 5 * 9=100
Sept 53 21 29 3 38 20 16 2 -- -- -- -- 9=100
Aug 57 27 28 2 37 20 16 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
Mar 44 13 29 2 49 32 15 2 -- -- -- -- 7=100
---------- DUKAKIS ---------- ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1988 Total Dukakis Bush decid Total Bush Dukakis decid DK
Oct 42 23 15 4 50 31 16 3 8=100
Sept 44 21 19 4 50 31 15 4 6=100
May 53 23 26 4 40 26 11 3 7=100
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE KERRY IN Q.4/4b (Q.4=1,3 OR Q.4b=1,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.6a Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John Kerry in November, or have you definitely
decided not to vote for him?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Kerry vote for Kerry Refused
August, 2004 11 39 3=53%
July, 2004 13 36 5=54%
June, 2004 10 41 3=54%
May, 2004 11 35 4=50%
Late March, 2004 13 37 3=53%
Mid-March, 2004 13 32 3=48%
Late February, 2004 13 36 3=52%
Early February, 2004 15 33 5=53%
Gore: November, 2000 8 41 6=55%
Gore: Late October, 2000 9 44 4=57%
Gore: Mid-October, 2000 10 40 5=55%
Gore: Early October, 2000 11 38 7=56%
Gore: September, 2000 13 35 5=53%
Gore: June, 2000 14 34 6=54%
Clinton:Early Sept, 1996 10 34 4=48%
Clinton:July, 1996 8 36 4=48%
Clinton:September, 1992 12 28 6=46%
Clinton:August, 1992 14 26 3=43%
Clinton:May, 1992 11 38 6=55%
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.4/4b (Q.4=2,3 OR Q.4b=2,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.6b Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush in November,
or have you definitely decided not to vote for him?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Bush vote for Bush Refused
August, 2004 10 42 3=55%
July, 2004 10 41 5=56%
June, 2004 9 41 2=52%
May, 2004 9 42 4=55%
Late March, 2004 11 40 3=54%
Mid-March, 2004 11 44 2=57%
Late February, 2004 10 43 3=56%
Early February, 2004 10 41 2=53%
Bush: November, 2000 8 44 7=59%
Bush: Late October, 2000 10 41 4=55%
Bush: Mid-October, 2000 12 40 5=57%
Bush: Early October, 2000 11 39 7=57%
Bush: September, 2000 15 38 6=59%
Bush: June, 2000 15 33 6=54%
Dole: Early September, 1996 14 47 5=66%
Dole: July, 1996 15 40 3=58%
Bush, Sr:September, 1992 12 44 6=62%
Bush, Sr:August, 1992 15 45 4=64%
Bush, Sr:May, 1992 8 40 5=53%
ASK ALL:
L.2 Do you yourself plan to vote in the election this November?
IF YES IN L.2, ASK:
L.3 How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain, or
not certain?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
Yes, Plan Absolutely Fairly Not No, Don't Don't know/
To Vote Certain Certain Certain Plan To Refused
August, 2004 98 89 8 1 2 *=100
June, 2004 96 85 10 1 2 2=100
Early November, 2002*^ 90 -- -- -- 8 2=100
Early October, 2002* 95 -- -- -- 3 2=100
Early November, 2000 96 -- -- -- 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 97 -- -- -- 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2000 96 -- -- -- 2 2=100
Early October, 2000 97 87 9 1 2 1=100
September, 2000 95 84 10 1 3 2=100
June, 2000 95 84 10 1 2 3=100
Late October, 1998* 91 -- -- -- 6 3=100
Early October, 1998* 92 -- -- -- 4 4=100
Early September, 1998* 95 -- -- -- 2 3=100
Late August, 1998* 93 75 17 1 3 4=100
June, 1998* 95 74 19 2 3 2=100
November, 1996 96 -- -- -- 2 2=100
October, 1996 98 87 10 1 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 98 89 8 1 1 1=100
Early September, 1996 96 83 11 2 2 2=100
July, 1996 95 82 12 1 3 2=100
June, 1996 96 84 11 1 2 2=100
November, 1994* 93 -- -- -- 5 2=100
October, 1994* 95 -- -- -- 3 2=100
October, 1992 98 91 6 1 1 1=100
September, 1992 98 85 11 2 1 1=100
August, 1992 97 89 8 * 1 2=100
June, 1992 97 88 8 1 1 2=100
Gallup: November, 1988 97 87 9 1 2 1=100
October, 1988 98 -- -- -- 1 1=100
* Non-Presidential elections
Q.7 Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the coming
presidential election? [READ]
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1166]:
George W. Bush John Kerry Other/DK
August, 2004 44 37 19=100
July, 2004 42 38 20=100
June, 2004 51 35 14=100
May, 2004 52 31 17=100
Early February, 2004 56 Bush 32 Dem Candidate 12=100
Mid-January, 2004 61 Bush 21 Dem Candidate 18=100
September, 2003 47 Bush 34 Dem Candidate 19=100
June, 2003 66 Bush 22 Dem Candidate 12=100
Late October, 2000 48 Bush 38 Gore 14=100
Early October, 2000 33 Bush 46 Gore 21=100
June, 2000 51 Bush 33 Gore 16=100
October, 1999 70 Bush 23 Gore 7=100
Late September, 1996 12 Dole 79 Clinton 9=100
Early September, 1996 16 Dole 75 Clinton 9=100
July, 1996 19 Dole 72 Clinton 9=100
October, 1992 30 Bush, Sr. 61 Clinton 9=100
March, 1992 72 Bush, Sr. 20 Dem Candidate 8=100
February, 1992 66 Bush, Sr. 25 Dem Candidate 9=100
October, 1991 78 Bush, Sr. 11 Dem Candidate 11=100
ASK FORM 1 ONLY:
Q.8F1 How much would you say you know about John Kerry and what he stands for a lot,
a fair amount, just some, or very little?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=569]:
NBC/Wall St. Journal
June May March
2004 2004 2004
23 A lot 15 18 21
47 A fair amount 42 44 44
18 Just some 28 25 18
11 Very little 15 12 16
1 Don't know/Refused 0 1 1
100 100 100 100
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Table of Contents
- Questionnaire (Part 1)