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Survey Reports
September 28, 2004
Bush Margin Widens Again, Despite Vulnerabilities
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
SEPTEMBER 2004 OMNIBUS SURVEYS
FINAL TOPLINE
September 22-26, 2004 Total N=1200; RV N=948
September 17-21, 2004 Total N=1200; RV N=989
RESULTS ARE SHOWN FOR TWO DISTINCT SURVEYS: SEPTEMBER 17-21 IS FROM THE MID-
SEPTEMBER OMNIBUS AND SEPTEMBER 22-26 IS FROM THE LATE SEPTEMBER OMNIBUS
THOUGHT How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election . . . Quite a
lot or only a little?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS:
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/
A lot Some Little None Ref.
September 22-26, 2004 68 4 23 4 1=100 (N=948)
September 17-21, 2004 66 4 25 4 1=100 (N=989)
Early September, 2004 71 3 22 3 1=100
September 11-14 69 3 23 4 1=100
September 8-10 73 3 21 2 1=100
August, 2004 69 2 26 2 1=100
July, 2004 67 2 28 2 1=100
June, 2004 58 3 36 2 1=100
May, 2004 59 6 30 4 1=100
Late March, 2004 60 4 31 4 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 65 2 31 2 *=100
2000 Early November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
Early October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
April, 2000 45 7 41 7 *=100
1996 November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
1992 October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
1988 Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
REGIST These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or move
around so often they don't get a chance to re-register. Are you NOW registered to vote
in your precinct or election district or haven't you been able to register so far?
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' YES IN REGIST ASK:
REGICERT Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote, or is there a chance that
your registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason?
9/22-26 9/17-21
2004 2004
79 81 Yes, registered
76 79 Absolutely certain
2 2 Chance registration has lapsed
1 0 Don't know/Refused
20 18 No, not registered
1 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100 100
Q.1 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [INSERT, ROTATE
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS WITH NADER TICKET LAST] for the Republican
ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John
Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?
IF OTHER OR DK (Q.1=4,9), ASK:
Q.1b As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.1]?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS:
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Lean Bush Lean Kerry Lean Nader Don't Know
September 22-26, 2004 48 40 2 10=100 (N=948)
September 17-21, 2004 45 42 3 10=100 (N=989)
Early September, 2004 49 43 1 7=100
September 11-14 46 46 1 7=100
September 8-10 52 40 1 7=100
August, 2004 45 47 2 6=100
July, 2004 44 46 3 7=100
June, 2004 46 42 6 6=100
May, 2004 43 46 6 5=100
Late March, 2004 44 43 6 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 42 49 4 5=100
Bush/ Gore/ Nader/
Lean Bush Lean Gore Lean Nader
September, 2000 41 47 2 10=100
July, 2000 42 41 6 11=100
Dole/ Clinton/ Perot/
Lean Dole Lean Clinton Lean Perot
Late September, 1996 35 51 7 7=100
Early September, 1996 34 52 8 6=100
July, 1996 34 44 16 6=100
Bush, Sr./ Clinton/ Perot/
Lean Bush, Sr. Lean Clinton Lean Perot
Early October, 1992 35 48 8 9=100
June, 1992 31 28 36 5=100
NO QUESTION 2
QUESTION 3 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
QUESTIONS 4 AND 5 ASKED ON SEPTEMBER 22-26 SURVEY 2004 ONLY:
Q.4 As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes John Kerry
or George W. Bush.
(INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=948]: (VOL.)
George John (VOL.) Both
W. Bush Kerry Neither Equally DK/Ref.
a Would use good judgment in a crisis
September 22-26, 2004 49 36 3 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 53 34 2 4 7=100
September 11-13, 2004 52 33 3 4 8=100
September 8-10, 2004 55 34 1 3 7=100
August, 2004 50 38 2 3 7=100
May, 2004 47 35 4 5 9=100
Late March, 2004 46 36 2 3 13=100
Mid-March, 2004 48 39 2 5 6=100
Late-October, 2000 43 42 2 5 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 5 8 5=100
Early October, 2000 36 43 4 10 7=100
September, 2000 38 44 3 8 7=100
June, 2000 44 37 5 6 8=100
b. Honest and truthful
September 22-26, 2004 41 32 15 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 43 35 12 4 6=100
September 11-13, 2004 41 36 13 4 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 44 35 12 3 6=100
August, 2004 42 38 12 2 6=100
May, 2004 34 36 17 4 9=100
Late March, 2004 37 38 12 3 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 35 39 16 5 5=100
Late-October, 2000 43 32 15 5 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 38 30 19 6 7=100
Early October, 2000 36 32 17 8 7=100
September, 2000 35 37 13 9 6=100
June, 2000 35 31 19 7 8=100
c. Cares about people like me
September 22-26, 2004 38 42 8 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 41 43 6 5 5=100
September 11-13, 2004 38 46 6 4 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 44 41 6 5 4=100
August, 2004 39 45 7 3 6=100
May, 2004 34 45 8 5 8=100
Late March, 2004 38 42 9 3 8=100
Mid-March, 2004 34 48 8 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 40 43 8 5 4=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 7 7 4=100
Early October, 2000 35 44 11 5 5=100
September, 2000 31 47 9 7 6=100
d. A strong leader
September 22-26, 2004 54 28 5 3 10=100
Early September, 2004 58 30 4 3 5=100
September 11-13, 2004 57 30 4 4 5=100
September 8-10, 2004 59 29 3 3 6=100
August, 2004 57 34 2 3 4=100
May, 2004 50 31 8 4 7=100
Late March, 2004 51 33 4 2 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 52 34 4 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 44 41 6 6 3=100
Mid-October, 2000 42 39 9 6 4=100
Early October, 2000 41 38 7 10 4=100
September, 2000 44 38 7 6 5=100
e. Willing to take a stand, even if it's
unpopular
September 22-26, 2004 63 23 3 3 8=100
Early September, 2004 69 23 1 3 4=100
September 11-13, 2004 67 23 1 4 5=100
September 8-10, 2004 70 22 1 3 4=100
August, 2004 62 29 1 5 3=100
May, 2004 65 23 3 4 5=100
Late March, 2004 59 28 3 3 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 63 27 1 5 4=100
Late-October, 2000 49 35 7 4 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 49 35 6 5 5=100
Early October, 2000 43 35 8 6 8=100
September, 2000 45 37 8 5 5=100
June, 2000 46 32 9 5 8=100
Q.5 Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates George W. Bush
or John Kerry do you think would do the best job of (INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE. IF
RESPONDENT MENTIONS ANYONE OTHER THAN BUSH OR KERRY PROBE ONCE: "IF YOU HAD TO CHOOSE
BETWEEN BUSH AND KERRY. . . ")?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=948]:
George John (VOL.)
W. Bush Kerry Neither DK/Ref.
a. Improving economic conditions
September 22-26, 2004 39 46 5 10=100
Early September, 2004 42 45 4 9=100
September 11-13, 2004 40 47 4 9=100
September 8-10, 2004 43 44 4 9=100
August, 2004 37 52 3 8=100
May, 2004 38 48 5 9=100
Late March, 2004 39 44 6 11=100
Mid-March, 2004 37 53 2 8=100
Late-October, 2000 40 46 6 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 49 3 11=100
Early October, 2000 35 47 6 12=100
September, 2000 38 46 5 11=100
June, 2000 38 41 5 16=100
March, 2000 42 46 4 8=100
b. Improving the health care system
September 22-26, 2004 32 48 7 13=100
Early September, 2004 32 50 8 10=100
September 11-13, 2004 30 53 8 9=100
September 8-10, 2004 34 49 7 10=100
August, 2004 29 55 5 11=100
May, 2004 29 51 7 13=100
Late March, 2004 33 46 6 15=100
Mid-March, 2004 29 57 4 10=100
Late-October, 2000 38 47 5 10=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 48 4 11=100
Early October, 2000 36 49 5 10=100
September, 2000 32 51 6 11=100
June, 2000 31 44 6 19=100
March, 2000 31 51 6 12=100
c. Making wise decisions about
what to do in Iraq
September 22-26, 2004 46 38 5 11=100
Early September, 2004 51 39 3 7=100
September 11-13, 2004 52 40 2 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 52 37 4 7=100
August, 2004 44 46 3 7=100
May, 2004 44 41 4 11=100
Late March, 2004 49 37 4 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 47 45 2 6=100
g. Defending the country from
future terrorist attacks
September 22-26, 2004 54 30 4 12=100
Early September, 2004 58 31 3 8=100
September 11-13, 2004 57 31 4 8=100
September 8-10, 2004 59 30 3 8=100
August, 2004 49 39 4 8=100
May, 2004 52 33 5 10=100
Late March, 2004 53 29 4 14=100
Mid-March, 2004 57 32 4 7=100
NO QUESTIONS 6 THROUGH 8
QUESTIONS 9 THROUGH 13 ASKED ON SEPTEMBER 17 - 21 SURVEY 2004 ONLY:
ASK ALL:
Q.9 Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs
available in your community or are jobs difficult to find?
U.S. News &
Late Late Mid- World Report
Sept 17-21 Aug April Feb Jan Oct June June Aug May Jan
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2003 2002 2001 1992 1992 1992
31 Plenty of jobs available 34 30 31 27 24 31 42 15 16 12
52 Jobs are difficult to find 55 57 59 60 66 59 44 76 77 79
6 Lots of some jobs, few of others (VOL) 4 4 5 6 5 4 8 6 4 6
11 Don't know 7 9 6 7 5 6 6 3 3 3
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
QUESTIONS 10-12 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q.13 How would you rate economic conditions in this country today as excellent, good, only fair,
or poor?
Only Don't know/
Excellent Good Fair Poor Refused
September 17-21, 2004 4 34 40 20 2=100
August, 2004 3 30 45 21 1=100
Late April, 2004 4 34 38 22 2=100
Late February, 2004 2 29 42 26 1=100
February 9-12, 2004 (Gallup) 2 31 46 21 0=100
January 12-15, 2004 (Gallup) 3 34 42 21 0=100
January 2-5, 2004 (Gallup) 3 40 41 16 *=100
December 11-14, 2003 (Gallup) 3 34 44 19 *=100
November 3-5, 2003 (Gallup) 2 28 49 21 *=100
October 24-26, 2003 (Gallup) 2 24 44 30 *=100
October 6-8, 2003 (Gallup) 2 20 50 27 1=100
September 8-10, 2003 (Gallup) 1 20 49 30 *=100
August 4-6, 2003 (Gallup) 1 24 52 23 *=100
August 5-8, 2002 (Gallup) 1 27 52 19 1=100
August 16-19, 2001 (Gallup) 2 34 49 14 1=100
August 18-19, 2000 (Gallup) 25 49 21 4 1=100
August 24-26, 1999 (Gallup) 14 50 28 7 1=100
September 1, 1998 (Gallup) 11 54 25 9 1=100
August 22-25, 1997 (Gallup) 8 41 38 13 *=100
October 26-29, 1996 (Gallup) 5 42 39 13 1=100
November 6-8, 1995 (Gallup) 2 28 47 22 1=100
July 15-17, 1994 (Gallup) 1 26 52 21 *=100
June 29-30, 1993 (Gallup) 1 14 52 32 1=100
Aug. 31-Sept., 1992 (Gallup) (RVs) 1 9 37 53 *=100
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