Hot Topics
Survey Reports
October 4, 2004
Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
EARLY OCTOBER 2004 POLITICAL SURVEY
FINAL TOPLINE
October 1-3, 2004
General Public N=1233
Registered Voters N =1002
NOTE: ALL NUMBERS IN SURVEY, INCLUDING TREND FIGURES, ARE BASED ON REGISTERED
VOTERS EXCEPT WHERE NOTED
THOUGHT How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election . . . Quite a lot
or only a little?
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/
A lot Some Little None Ref.
Early October, 2004 74 4 19 2 1=100
September 22-26, 2004 68 4 23 4 1=100
September 17-21, 2004 66 4 25 4 1=100
Early September, 2004 71 3 22 3 1=100
September 11-14 69 3 23 4 1=100
September 8-10 73 3 21 2 1=100
August, 2004 69 2 26 2 1=100
July, 2004 67 2 28 2 1=100
June, 2004 58 3 36 2 1=100
May, 2004 59 6 30 4 1=100
Late March, 2004 60 4 31 4 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 65 2 31 2 *=100
2000 Early November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
Early October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
April, 2000 45 7 41 7 *=100
1996 November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
1992 October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
1988 Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
Q.1 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [INSERT, ROTATE
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS WITH NADER TICKET LAST] for the Republican
ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John
Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?
IF CHOSE BUSH, KERRY OR NADER IN Q.1, ASK:
Q.1a Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.1 LAST NAME ONLY, DO NOT READ VP CHOICE)
strongly or only moderately?
IF OTHER OR DK (Q.1=4,9), ASK:
Q.1b As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.1]?
Bush/Lean Bush Kerry/Lean Kerry Nader/ Other/
Only Only Lean Don't
Total Strongly Mod. DK Total Strongly Mod. DK Nader Know
Early October, 2004 48 35 12 1 41 24 17 * 2 9=100
September 22-26, 2004 48 40 2 10=100
September 17-21, 2004 45 42 3 10=100
Early September, 2004 49 33 15 1 43 22 20 1 1 7=100
September 11-14 46 30 15 1 46 22 24 * 1 7=100
September 8-10 52 36 15 1 40 22 17 1 1 7=100
August, 2004 45 32 13 * 47 28 19 * 2 6=100
July, 2004 44 46 3 7=100
June, 2004 46 42 6 6=100
May, 2004 43 46 6 5=100
Late March, 2004 44 43 6 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 42 49 4 5=100
Bush/Lean Bush Gore/Lean Gore Nader
Late October, 2000 45 29 16 * 43 24 19 * 4 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 43 25 18 * 45 22 23 * 4 8=100
Early October, 2000 43 26 17 * 44 22 22 * 5 8=100
September, 2000 41 21 19 1 47 25 21 1 2 10=100
July, 2000 42 41 6 11=100
Dole/Lean Dole Clinton/Lean Clinton Perot
October, 1996 34 17 16 1 51 25 26 * 8 7=100
Late September, 1996 35 16 18 1 51 26 25 * 7 7=100
Early September, 1996 34 17 17 * 52 26 26 0 8 6=100
July, 1996 34 44 16 6=100
Bush, Sr./Lean Bush, Sr. Clinton/Lean Clinton Perot
Late October, 1992 34 20 14 -- 44 26 18 -- 19 3=100
Early October, 1992 35 14 21 -- 48 23 25 -- 8 9=100
June, 1992 31 28 36 5=100
THOSE WHO CHOSE KERRY/EDWARDS (Q.1/Q.1b) ASK:
Q.2a Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR John Kerry or more a vote AGAINST
George W. Bush?
THOSE WHO CHOSE BUSH/CHENEY (Q.1/Q.1b) ASK:
Q.2b Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST
John Kerry?
----------- KERRY ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2004 Total Kerry Bush decid Total Bush Kerry decid DK
Oct 41 15 23 3 48 36 10 2 11=100
Early Sept 43 15 26 2 49 38 9 2 8=100
9/11-14 46 16 28 2 46 35 8 3 8=100
9/8-10 40 14 23 3 52 40 10 2 8=100
Aug 47 20 24 3 45 34 8 3 8=100
June 46 17 27 2 48 35 11 2 6=100
May 50 15 32 3 45 33 10 2 5=100
Late Mar 47 17 27 3 46 36 8 2 7=100
Mid-Mar 52 21 29 2 43 34 7 2 5=100
Feb 47 15 30 2 47 39 6 2 6=100
----------- GORE ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2000 Total Gore Bush decid Total Bush Gore decid DK
Nov 45 29 14 2 41 27 12 2 14=100
Sept 47 30 14 3 41 24 14 3 12=100
----------- CLINTON ------------ ----------- DOLE -------- -------------PEROT----------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1996 Total Clinton other decid Total Dole other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Nov 51 33 15 3 32 15 15 2 9 4 5 * 8=100
Oct 51 33 16 2 34 15 18 1 8 4 4 * 7=100
Sept 52 35 15 2 34 16 17 1 8 3 5 0 6=100
Mar 53 30 20 3 41 15 25 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
---------- CLINTON ---------- ---------- BUSH --------- -----------PEROT-------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1992 Total Clinton other decid Total Bush other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Oct 44 25 17 2 34 19 13 2 19 10 7 2 3=100
Oct 48 23 22 3 35 19 13 3 8 3 5 * 9=100
Sept 53 21 29 3 38 20 16 2 -- -- -- -- 9=100
Aug 57 27 28 2 37 20 16 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
Mar 44 13 29 2 49 32 15 2 -- -- -- -- 7=100
---------- DUKAKIS ---------- ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1988 Total Dukakis Bush decid Total Bush Dukakis decid DK
Oct 42 23 15 4 50 31 16 3 8=100
Sept 44 21 19 4 50 31 15 4 6=100
May 53 23 26 4 40 26 11 3 7=100
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE KERRY IN Q.1/1b (Q.1=1,3 OR Q.1b=1,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.3a Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John Kerry in November, or have you
definitely decided not to vote for him?
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Kerry vote for Kerry Refused
Early October, 2004 9 45 5=59%
September 22-26, 2004 14 41 5=60%
September 17-21, 2004 10 40 7=57%
Early September, 2004 11 42 4=57%
September 11-14 11 38 5=54%
September 8-10 11 46 3=60%
August, 2004 11 39 3=53%
July, 2004 13 36 5=54%
June, 2004 10 41 3=54%
May, 2004 11 35 4=50%
Late March, 2004 13 37 3=53%
Mid-March, 2004 13 32 3=48%
Late February, 2004 13 36 3=52%
Early February, 2004 15 33 5=53%
Gore: November, 2000 8 41 6=55%
Gore: Late October, 2000 9 44 4=57%
Gore: Mid-October, 2000 10 40 5=55%
Gore: Early October, 2000 11 38 7=56%
Gore: September, 2000 13 35 5=53%
Gore: June, 2000 14 34 6=54%
Clinton: October, 1996 10 35 4=49%
Clinton: Late September, 1996 11 35 3=49%
Clinton: Early September, 1996 10 34 4=48%
Clinton: July, 1996 8 36 4=48%
Clinton: Late October, 1992 11 43 2=56%
Clinton: Early October, 1992 14 32 6=52%
Clinton: September, 1992 12 28 6=46%
Clinton: August, 1992 14 26 3=43%
Clinton: May, 1992 11 38 6=55%
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.1/1b (Q.1=2,3 OR Q.1b=2,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.3b Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush in November, or have
you definitely decided not to vote for him?
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Bush vote for Bush Refused
Early October, 2004 9 39 4=52%
September 22-26, 2004 10 37 5=52%
September 17-21, 2004 9 39 7=55%
Early September, 2004 9 38 4=51%
September 11-14 8 41 5=54%
September 8-10 9 35 4=48%
August, 2004 10 42 3=55%
July, 2004 10 41 5=56%
June, 2004 9 41 2=52%
May, 2004 9 42 4=55%
Late March, 2004 11 40 3=54%
Mid-March, 2004 11 44 2=57%
Late February, 2004 10 43 3=56%
Early February, 2004 10 41 2=53%
Bush: November, 2000 8 44 7=59%
Bush: Late October, 2000 10 41 4=55%
Bush: Mid-October, 2000 12 40 5=57%
Bush: Early October, 2000 11 39 7=57%
Bush: September, 2000 15 38 6=59%
Bush: June, 2000 15 33 6=54%
Dole: October, 1996 11 51 4=66%
Dole: Late September, 1996 16 44 5=65%
Dole: Early September, 1996 14 47 5=66%
Dole: July, 1996 15 40 3=58%
Bush, Sr: Late October, 1992 11 53 2=66%
Bush, Sr: Early October, 1992 13 46 6=65%
Bush, Sr: September, 1992 12 44 6=62%
Bush, Sr: August, 1992 15 45 4=64%
Bush, Sr: May, 1992 8 40 5=53%
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
PLANTO1 Do you yourself plan to vote in the election this November?
IF YES IN PLANTO1, ASK:
PLANTO2 How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain,
or not certain?
Yes, Plan Absolutely Fairly Not No, Don't Don't know/
To Vote Certain Certain Certain Plan To Refused
Early October, 2004 98 91 6 1 1 1=100
Early September, 2004 98 91 6 1 1 1=100
September 11-14 97 89 7 1 2 1=100
September 8-10 99 93 6 * 1 *=100
August, 2004 98 89 8 1 2 *=100
June, 2004 96 85 10 1 2 2=100
Early November, 2002* 90 -- -- -- 8 2=100
Early October, 2002* 95 -- -- -- 3 2=100
Early November, 2000 96 -- -- -- 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 97 -- -- -- 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2000 96 -- -- -- 2 2=100
Early October, 2000 97 87 9 1 2 1=100
September, 2000 95 84 10 1 3 2=100
June, 2000 95 84 10 1 2 3=100
Late October, 1998* 91 -- -- -- 6 3=100
Early October, 1998* 92 -- -- -- 4 4=100
Early September, 1998* 95 -- -- -- 2 3=100
Late August, 1998* 93 75 17 1 3 4=100
June, 1998* 95 74 19 2 3 2=100
November, 1996 96 -- -- -- 2 2=100
October, 1996 98 87 10 1 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 98 89 8 1 1 1=100
Early September, 1996 96 83 11 2 2 2=100
July, 1996 95 82 12 1 3 2=100
June, 1996 96 84 11 1 2 2=100
November, 1994* 93 -- -- -- 5 2=100
October, 1994* 95 -- -- -- 3 2=100
October, 1992 98 91 6 1 1 1=100
September, 1992 98 85 11 2 1 1=100
August, 1992 97 89 8 * 1 2=100
June, 1992 97 88 8 1 1 2=100
Gallup: November, 1988 97 87 9 1 2 1=100
October, 1988 98 -- -- -- 1 1=100
* Non-Presidential elections
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.4 Did you happen to watch the presidential debate between John Kerry and George W. Bush
(last night/this past Thursday night), or didn't you get a chance to see it? IF YES, ASK:
How much of the debate did you
watch: all of it, some of it, or only a little?
Gore/Bush
Early Oct 2000
69 Yes (NET) 63
41 Yes, all 32
22 Yes, some 24
6 Yes, a little 7
31 No, didn't watch 37
* Don't know/Refused *
100 100
IF RESPONDENT WATCHED (Q.4=1-3) ASK [N=727]:
Q.5 Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, who do you think did the better job
in the presidential debate George W. Bush or John Kerry?
Early Oct
2000
26 Bush 32 Bush
58 Kerry 41 Gore
9 Neither/Both (VOL.) 22
7 Don't know/Refused 5
100 100
IF RESPONDENT WATCHED (Q.4=1-3) ASK [N=727]:
ROTATE Q.6 AND Q.7
Q.6 Please tell me what one word best describes your impression of John Kerry in the debate.
Tell me just the ONE best word that described him. (OPEN-END. PROBE ONCE ONLY IF
RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW.")
47 Confident
25 Prepared
19 Intelligent
17 Presidential
16 Strong/Strength
14 Good
12 Knowledgeable
11 Arrogant
11 Wishy-washy
11 Articulate
10 Indecisive
9 Flip-flop
8 Politician
7 Untrustworthy
7 Polished
7 Thoughtful
The numbers listed represent the number of respondents who offered each response; the numbers
are not percentages.
Q.7 Please tell me what one word best describes your impression of George W. Bush in the debate.
Tell me just the ONE best word that described him. (OPEN-END. PROBE ONCE ONLY IF
RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW.")
33 Honest
23 Strong/Strength
14 Sincere
14 Confident
13 Defensive
11 Determined
11 Good
11 Steady/Steadfast
11 Adequate
11 Liar
11 Nervous
10 Tired/Fatigued/Exhausted
9 Leader/Leadership
9 Repetitive
8 Angry
8 Confused
8 Resolute
8 Frustrated
8 Uncertain
7 Stubborn
7 Flustered
7 Unprepared
7 Consistent
7 Integrity
The numbers listed represent the number of respondents who offered each response; the numbers
are not percentages.
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
ROTATE QUESTIONS 8-9
Q.8 In your opinion, has George W. Bush made major misjudgments in his handling of security
issues such as the war on terrorism and Iraq, or don't you think so?
47 Yes, made major misjudgments
47 No, don't think so
6 Don't know/Refused
100
Q.9 Do you think John Kerry changes his mind too much to be a good commander in chief, or don't
you think so?
48 Yes, changes his mind too much
38 No, don't think so
14 Don't know/Refused
100
ROTATE QUESTIONS 10-11
Q.10 Do you think John Kerry would give our allies too much say in U.S. foreign policy decisions, or don't
you think so?
39 Yes, would give allies too much say
43 No, don't think so
18 Don't know/Refused
100
Q.11 Do you think George W. Bush is too inflexible in his thinking about foreign policy decisions,
or don't you think so?
39 Yes, is too inflexible
51 No, don't think so
10 Don't know/Refused
100
Q.12 How likely is it that you will watch either of the upcoming presidential debates between
Bush and Kerry this coming Friday, or next Wednesday?
Early Early Late
Sept Oct Sept Sept ------ CBS/NYT ------
2004 2000 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984
59 Very likely 61 49 43 43 67 55 55
29 Somewhat likely, OR 27 31 31 34 24 27 27
11 Not likely 11 19 22 22 8 17 16
1 Don't know/Refused (VOL) 1 1 4 1 2 1 2
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.13 How likely is it that you will watch this Tuesday's vice presidential debate between Dick
Cheney and John Edwards?
41 Very likely
29 Somewhat likely, OR
29 Not likely
1 Don't know/Refused (DON'T READ)
100
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.19 As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes John Kerry or George W. Bush.
(INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE)
(VOL.)
George John (VOL.) Both
W. Bush Kerry Neither Equally DK/Ref.
a Would use good judgment in
a crisis 51 37 2 3 7=100
September 22-26, 2004 49 36 3 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 53 34 2 4 7=100
September 11-13, 2004 52 33 3 4 8=100
September 8-10, 2004 55 34 1 3 7=100
August, 2004 50 38 2 3 7=100
May, 2004 47 35 4 5 9=100
Late March, 2004 46 36 2 3 13=100
Mid-March, 2004 48 39 2 5 6=100
Late-October, 2000 43 42 2 5 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 5 8 5=100
Early October, 2000 36 43 4 10 7=100
September, 2000 38 44 3 8 7=100
June, 2000 44 37 5 6 8=100
b. Honest and truthful 47 34 10 3 6=100
September 22-26, 2004 41 32 15 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 43 35 12 4 6=100
September 11-13, 2004 41 36 13 4 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 44 35 12 3 6=100
August, 2004 42 38 12 2 6=100
May, 2004 34 36 17 4 9=100
Late March, 2004 37 38 12 3 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 35 39 16 5 5=100
Late-October, 2000 43 32 15 5 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 38 30 19 6 7=100
Early October, 2000 36 32 17 8 7=100
September, 2000 35 37 13 9 6=100
June, 2000 35 31 19 7 8=100
c. Cares about people like me 41 43 7 4 5=100
September 22-26, 2004 38 42 8 3 9=100
Early September, 2004 41 43 6 5 5=100
September 11-13, 2004 38 46 6 4 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 44 41 6 5 4=100
August, 2004 39 45 7 3 6=100
May, 2004 34 45 8 5 8=100
Late March, 2004 38 42 9 3 8=100
Mid-March, 2004 34 48 8 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 40 43 8 5 4=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 42 7 7 4=100
Early October, 2000 35 44 11 5 5=100
September, 2000 31 47 9 7 6=100
d. A strong leader 57 32 3 2 6=100
September 22-26, 2004 54 38 5 3 10=100
Early September, 2004 58 30 4 3 5=100
September 11-13, 2004 57 30 4 4 5=100
September 8-10, 2004 59 29 3 3 6=100
August, 2004 57 34 2 3 4=100
May, 2004 50 31 8 4 7=100
Late March, 2004 51 33 4 2 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 52 34 4 4 6=100
Late-October, 2000 44 41 6 6 3=100
Mid-October, 2000 42 39 9 6 4=100
Early October, 2000 41 38 7 10 4=100
September, 2000 44 38 7 6 5=100
e. Willing to take a stand,
even if it's unpopular 68 23 1 3 5=100
September 22-26, 2004 63 23 3 3 8=100
Early September, 2004 69 23 1 3 4=100
September 11-13, 2004 67 23 1 4 5=100
September 8-10, 2004 70 22 1 3 4=100
August, 2004 62 29 1 5 3=100
May, 2004 65 23 3 4 5=100
Late March, 2004 59 28 3 3 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 63 27 1 5 4=100
Late-October, 2000 49 35 7 4 5=100
Mid-October, 2000 49 35 6 5 5=100
Early October, 2000 43 35 8 6 8=100
September, 2000 45 37 8 5 5=100
June, 2000 46 32 9 5 8=100
Q.20 Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates George W. Bush or
John Kerry do you think would do the best job of (INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE. IF RESPONDENT
MENTIONS ANYONE OTHER THAN BUSH OR KERRY PROBE ONCE: "IF YOU HAD TO
CHOOSE BETWEEN BUSH AND KERRY. . . ";)?
George John (VOL.)
W. Bush Kerry Neither DK/Ref.
a. Improving economic conditions 40 46 5 9=100
September 22-26, 2004 39 46 5 10=100
Early September, 2004 42 45 4 9=100
September 11-13, 2004 40 47 4 9=100
September 8-10, 2004 43 44 4 9=100
August, 2004 37 52 3 8=100
May, 2004 38 48 5 9=100
Late March, 2004 39 44 6 11=100
Mid-March, 2004 37 53 2 8=100
Late-October, 2000 40 46 6 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 49 3 11=100
Early October, 2000 35 47 6 12=100
September, 2000 38 46 5 11=100
June, 2000 38 41 5 16=100
March, 2000 42 46 4 8=100
b. Improving the health care system 31 49 8 12=100
September 22-26, 2004 32 48 7 13=100
Early September, 2004 32 50 8 10=100
September 11-13, 2004 30 53 8 9=100
September 8-10, 2004 34 49 7 10=100
August, 2004 29 55 5 11=100
May, 2004 29 51 7 13=100
Late March, 2004 33 46 6 15=100
Mid-March, 2004 29 57 4 10=100
Late-October, 2000 38 47 5 10=100
Mid-October, 2000 37 48 4 11=100
Early October, 2000 36 49 5 10=100
September, 2000 32 51 6 11=100
June, 2000 31 44 6 19=100
March, 2000 31 51 6 12=100
c. Making wise decisions about what
to do in Iraq 50 40 2 8=100
September 22-26, 2004 46 38 5 11=100
Early September, 2004 51 39 3 7=100
September 11-13, 2004 52 40 2 6=100
September 8-10, 2004 52 37 4 7=100
August, 2004 44 46 3 7=100
May, 2004 44 41 4 11=100
Late March, 2004 49 37 4 10=100
Mid-March, 2004 47 45 2 6=100
d. Defending the country from future
terrorist attacks 57 32 3 8=100
September 22-26, 2004 54 30 4 12=100
Early September, 2004 58 31 3 8=100
September 11-13, 2004 57 31 4 8=100
September 8-10, 2004 59 30 3 8=100
August, 2004 49 39 4 8=100
May, 2004 52 33 5 10=100
Late March, 2004 53 29 4 14=100
Mid-March, 2004 57 32 4 7=100
Q.21 Now I'd like your views on some people. (First,) would you say your overall opinion of
[INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly UNfavorable, or very
unfavorable? [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN "NEVER HEARD OF" AND "CAN'T
RATE."]
-------Favorable------ -----Unfavorable----- Never Can't
Total Very Mostly Total Very Mostly Heard of Rate
a. John Kerry 53 16 37 41 16 25 * 6=100
Early September, 2004 53 18 35 42 19 23 0 6=100
September 11-14 54 18 36 38 19 20 0 7=100
September 8-10 51 18 33 46 26 20 0 3=100
August, 2004 56 23 33 36 14 22 1 7=100
June, 2004 50 11 39 41 16 25 0 9=100
Early February, 2004 58 14 44 28 8 20 1 13=100
January, 2003 30 6 24 16 4 12 36 18=100
Clinton: August, 1992 (RVs) 63 16 47 35 11 24 0 2=100
Clinton: July, 1992 59 17 42 34 9 25 0 7=100
Dukakis: September, 1988 (RVs) 51 18 33 42 19 23 7=100
Dukakis: August, 1988 (RVs) 59 17 42 33 11 22 8=100
b. George W. Bush 57 27 30 40 20 20 0 3=100
Early September, 2004 53 27 26 43 24 19 * 3=100
September 11-14 50 25 25 46 28 18 0 4=100
September 8-10 58 30 28 40 20 20 * 2=100
August, 2004 58 31 27 41 24 17 0 1=100
June, 2004 52 21 31 45 22 23 * 3=100
Early February, 2004 55 23 32 44 26 18 0 1=100
Gallup:Jan 29 - Feb 1,2004 (GP) 52 -- -- 47 -- -- -- 1=100
Gallup:January 2-5, 2004 (GP) 65 -- -- 35 -- -- -- *=100
Gallup:October 6-8, 2003 (GP) 60 -- -- 39 -- -- -- 1=100
Gallup:June 9-10, 2003 (GP) 66 -- -- 33 -- -- -- 1=100
April, 2003 73 40 33 24 11 13 0 3=100
January, 2003 70 29 41 29 10 19 0 1=100
December, 2002 69 36 33 28 11 17 0 3=100
July, 2001 62 23 39 35 14 21 * 3=100
January, 2001 60 24 36 33 12 21 0 7=100
April, 2000 60 18 42 32 13 19 1 7=100
March, 1999 63 22 40 21 5 14 3 14=100
November, 1997 57 13 44 18 6 12 7 18=100
c. Dick Cheney 48 14 34 41 20 21 * 11=100
Early September, 2004 48 15 33 42 24 18 1 9=100
September 11-14 44 15 29 44 25 19 1 12=100
September 8-10 54 15 39 42 23 18 1 4=100
August, 2004 48 14 34 43 22 21 1 6=100
April, 2003 63 23 40 25 12 13 2 9=100
December, 2002 61 22 39 27 10 17 3 8=100
July, 2001 62 22 40 26 7 19 4 7=100
January, 2001 66 22 44 18 5 13 1 15=100
December, 1994 46 11 35 18 4 14 19 18=100
March, 1991 69 35 34 6 2 4 9 16=100
May, 1990 23 4 19 11 3 8 40 26=100
d. John Edwards 50 16 34 28 11 17 2 20=100
Early September, 2004 54 18 36 31 10 21 2 14=100
September 11-14 52 18 35 31 11 20 1 16=100
September 8-10 57 19 38 30 9 21 2 12=100
August, 2004 61 25 37 25 6 18 2 10=100
Early February, 2004 45 9 36 24 8 16 5 25=100
January, 2003 23 4 19 13 3 10 40 23=100
Gore: August, 1992 66 22 44 20 5 15 2 12=100
Gore: July, 1992 50 18 32 17 4 13 4 4=100
Bentsen: September, 1988 50 11 39 22 7 15 28=100
Bentsen: August, 1988 48 12 36 18 5 13 34=100
Q.22 Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the coming
presidential election? [READ]
George W. Bush John Kerry Other/DK
Early October, 2004 61 27 12=100
Early September, 2004 60 22 18=100
August, 2004 44 37 19=100
July, 2004 42 38 20=100
June, 2004 51 35 14=100
May, 2004 52 31 17=100
Early February, 2004 56 Bush 32 Dem Candidate 12=100
Mid-January, 2004 61 Bush 21 Dem Candidate 18=100
September, 2003 47 Bush 34 Dem Candidate 19=100
June, 2003 66 Bush 22 Dem Candidate 12=100
Late October, 2000 48 Bush 38 Gore 14=100
Early October, 2000 33 Bush 46 Gore 21=100
June, 2000 51 Bush 33 Gore 16=100
October, 1999 70 Bush 23 Gore 7=100
Late September, 1996 12 Dole 79 Clinton 9=100
Early September, 1996 16 Dole 75 Clinton 9=100
July, 1996 19 Dole 72 Clinton 9=100
October, 1992 30 Bush, Sr. 61 Clinton 9=100
March, 1992 72 Bush, Sr. 20 Dem Candidate 8=100
February, 1992 66 Bush, Sr. 25 Dem Candidate 9=100
October, 1991 78 Bush, Sr. 11 Dem Candidate 11=100
Q.23 THROUGH Q.26 BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC:
Now thinking about Iraq
Q.23 Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force
against Iraq?
BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=1233]:
Right Wrong Don't know/
decision decision Refused
Early October, 2004 50 39 11=100
Early September, 2004 53 39 8=100
August, 2004 53 41 6=100
July, 2004 52 43 5=100
June, 2004 55 38 7=100
May, 2004 51 42 7=100
Late April, 2004 54 37 9=100
Early April, 2004 57 35 8=100
Mid-March, 2004 55 39 6=100
Late February, 2004 60 32 8=100
Early February, 2004 56 39 5=100
Mid-January, 2004 65 30 5=100
Early January, 2004 62 28 10=100
December, 2003 67 26 7=100
October, 2003 60 33 7=100
September, 2003 63 31 6=100
August, 2003 63 30 7=100
Early July, 2003 67 24 9=100
May, 2003 74 20 6=100
April 10-16, 2003 74 19 7=100
April 8-9,2003 74 19 7=100
April 2-7, 2003 72 20 8=100
March 28-April 1, 2003 69 25 6=100
March 25-27, 2003 74 21 5=100
March 23-24, 2003 74 21 5=100
March 20-22, 2003 71 22 7=100
Late January, 1991 77 15 9=100
Q.24 Do you think George W. Bush has a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a
successful conclusion, or don't you think so?
BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=1233]:
Early Late Early
Sept Aug July June April April Dec Oct Sept
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003
35 Has a clear plan 36 36 34 37 36 32 44 35 32
55 Doesn't have a clear plan 55 58 59 55 54 57 45 54 58
10 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 9 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 10
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.25 Do you think John Kerry has a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful
conclusion, or don't you think so?
BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=1233]:
26 Has a clear plan
59 Doesn't have a clear plan
15 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100
And, thinking about the war on terrorism
Q.26 Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism?
BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=1233]:
Early Sept ABC News/Wash Post
2004 July 2004 October 2002
46 Winning 52 51 47
31 Losing 28 34 24
9 Neither (VOL) 9 10 21
14 Don't Know/Refused 11 5 9
100 100 100 101
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