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Survey Reports
October 27, 2004
Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS
VOTER CALLBACK SURVEYS 2004
FINAL TOPLINE
October 21-25, 2004
NOTE: CALLBACK OF SWING VOTERS, CERTAIN KERRY AND CERTAIN BUSH VOTERS FROM
THREE SEPTEMBER SURVEYS.
THOUGHT How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election . . . Quite a
lot or only a little?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
85 85 70 77 64 Quite a lot 61
1 2 3 3 3 Some (VOL) 5
11 11 24 17 30 Only a little 28
1 2 2 1 2 None (VOL) 4
2 * 2 2 1 Don't know/Refused 2
100 100 100 100 100 100
(N=241) (241) (519) (269) (250)
PLANTO1 All in all, do you yourself plan to vote in the election this November?
IF YES IN PLANTO1, ASK:
PLANTO2 How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain,
or not certain?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
96 95 91 92 90 Yes, plan to vote 98
90 93 80 84 76 Absolutely certain 86
4 2 9 8 10 Fairly certain 11
2 * 2 1 4 Not certain/Don't know 1
1 1 3 2 4 No, don't plan to 1
3 3 4 4 3 Already voted (VOL) 0
0 1 2 2 3 Don't know/Refused 2
100 100 100 100 100 100
SWING VOTERS
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
-- -- 22 43 -- Certain Bush
-- -- 27 52 -- Certain Kerry
-- -- 3 5 -- Certain Nader
-- -- 48 -- -- Swing Voter
-- -- 16 -- 34 Favor Bush, chance might change
-- -- 13 -- 28 Favor Kerry, chance might change
-- -- 3 -- 6 Favor Nader, chance might change
-- -- 16 -- 32 Undecided
100 100 100
Q.2 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [INSERT, ROTATE
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS WITH NADER TICKET LAST] for the Republican
ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John
Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?
IF CHOSE BUSH, KERRY OR NADER IN Q.2, ASK:
Q.2a Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.2 LAST NAME ONLY, DO NOT
READ VP CHOICE) strongly or only moderately?
IF OTHER OR DK (Q.2=4,9), ASK:
Q.2b As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.2]?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
97 1 38 43 34 Bush/Lean Bush 34
85 1 13 21 4 Strongly --
12 0 26 21 30 Only moderately --
0 0 * * 0 Don't know --
2 97 40 52 28 Kerry/Lean Kerry 27
0 73 11 20 1 Strongly --
2 23 29 31 26 Only moderately --
0 1 1 1 1 Don't know --
0 0 6 5 6 Nader/Lean Nader 7
1 2 16 0 32 Other/Don't know 32
100 100 100 100 100 100
THOSE WHO CHOSE KERRY/EDWARDS (Q.2/Q.2b) ASK:
Q.3a Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR John Kerry or more a vote AGAINST George
W. Bush?
THOSE WHO CHOSE BUSH/CHENEY (Q.2/Q.2b) ASK:
Q.3b Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST
John Kerry?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
2 97 40 52 28 Kerry/Lean Kerry
1 48 14 17 11 Pro-Kerry
* 43 23 33 14 Anti-Bush
1 6 3 3 3 Undecided
97 1 38 43 34 Bush/Lean Bush
74 1 22 26 18 Pro-Bush
18 0 12 15 9 Anti-Kerry
5 0 4 1 6 Undecided
1 2 22 5 38 Other/Don't know
100 100 100 100 100
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE KERRY IN Q.2/2b (Q.2=1,3 OR Q.2b=1,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.4a Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John Kerry in November, or have you
definitely decided not to vote for him?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
2 1 23 0 47 Chance might vote for Kerry 44
96 1 28 47 8 Decided not to vote for Kerry 12
* 1 9 1 18 Don't know/Refused 17
98% 3% 60% 48% 73% 73%
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.2/2b (Q.2=2,3 OR Q.2b=2,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.4b Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush in November, or have
you definitely decided not to vote for him?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
2 3 18 0 37 Chance might vote for Bush 34
1 93 34 56 10 Decided not to vote for Bush 13
* 3 10 1 19 Don't know/Refused 18
3% 99% 62% 57% 66% 65%
ASK ALL:
Many people have been telling us that they've learned a lot about the candidates during this
campaign.
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES BETWEEN Q.5a AND Q.5b
Q.5a Thinking first about [George W. Bush/John Kerry], has anything happened or have you seen,
or read, or heard anything over the past month that has made you think differently about
him? [OPEN END: PROBE ONCE IF "NO"/"DON'T KNOW"; NO PROBE FOR ADDITIONAL RESPONSES]
Q.5b How about [George W. Bush/ John Kerry]? Has anything happened or have you seen, or read, or
heard anything over the past month that has made you think differently about him?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
18 33 30 34 25 Debates
9 4 8 9 7 Stories (NET)
5 12 11 11 11 Media (NET)
27 41 40 39 41 Issues (NET)
4 16 14 11 17 Iraq
33 23 23 25 19 Qualities (NET)
21 21 21 18 23 Other/Don't know
NO QUESTION 6
Q.7 Would you say it has been [INSERT ITEM; ROTATE] to make a decision about who to vote for
this year, or has it been [NEXT ITEM] to make a decision?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
13 15 63 49 78 Hard
87 83 35 50 20 Easy
0 2 2 1 2 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100 100
ASK SWING VOTERS ONLY:
Q.8 As I read a statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree. First, [INSERT ITEM;
ROTATE]
a. I still don't know enough about Bush and Kerry.
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
-- -- 42 34 50 Agree
-- -- 54 65 43 Disagree
-- -- 4 1 7 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100
b. I find myself agreeing with George W. Bush on SOME important issues, and agreeing with
John Kerry on OTHER important issues.
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
-- -- 66 58 76 Agree
-- -- 29 40 17 Disagree
-- -- 5 2 7 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100
c. I think EITHER Bush or Kerry would make a good president.
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
-- -- 37 30 45 Agree
-- -- 51 63 37 Disagree
-- -- 12 7 18 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100
NO QUESTION 9
ASK ALL:
Q.10 As far as making progress on the important issues facing the country is concerned, does it
really matter who wins the 2004 presidential election, or will things be pretty much the
same regardless of who is elected president?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
83 82 63 71 53 Really matters who wins the 2004 presidential election
14 14 31 24 39 Things will pretty much be the same regardless
3 4 6 5 8 Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100 100
Q.11 Did you happen to watch any of the presidential debates this year, or didn't you get a
chance to see them? IF YES, ASK: Did you watch a lot, some, or only a little?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
85 85 75 79 71 YES, watched debates NET
49 51 36 43 30 Watched a lot / all of them
28 17 26 25 27 Watched some
8 17 13 11 14 Watched a little
14 15 25 21 29 No, didn't watch
1 0 * 0 * Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100 100
IF 'YES' (1-3 IN Q.11) ASK:
Q.12 Overall, who do you think did the better job in the presidential debates George W. Bush
or John Kerry?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
43 1 13 14 12 Bush
27 76 44 52 37 Kerry
13 7 12 10 13 Neither/Both (VOL.)
2 1 6 3 9 Don't know/Refused
15 15 25 21 29 No, didn't watch debate/Don't know/Refused
100 100 100 100 100
Q.13 Which one of the following issues would you say is most important to you as you decide who
to vote for this year [READ AND RANDOMIZE ITEMS 1 THRU 4 WITH 5 ALWAYS LAST] [PROBE IF
SAYS MORE THAN ONE: I understand do you think there is ONE that is MOST important?]
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
15 41 32 36 29 The economy
9 17 18 18 19 Health care
16 24 16 18 13 Iraq
43 6 16 14 18 Terrorism
14 9 12 10 14 Or something else [SPECIFY: ________]
3 3 6 4 7 Don't know/Refused [VOL.]
100 100 100 100 100
ROTATE Q.14 AND Q.15
Q.14 Would you say your overall opinion of John Kerry is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
UNfavorable, or very unfavorable? [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN
"NEVER HEARD OF" AND "CAN'T RATE."]
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
7 93 54 56 52 FAVORABLE 45
* 39 10 13 6 Very 6
6 54 44 42 47 Mostly 39
92 2 35 42 28 UNFAVORABLE 33
47 1 9 11 7 Very 8
45 2 26 31 21 Mostly 25
0 0 0 0 0 Never heard of (VOL) *
1 5 11 2 20 Can't Rate/Refused (VOL) 22
100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.15 Would you say your overall opinion of George W. Bush is very favorable, mostly favorable,
mostly UNfavorable, or very unfavorable? [INTERVIEWERS: PROBE TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN
"NEVER HEARD OF" AND "CAN'T RATE."]
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
96 6 50 47 52 FAVORABLE 54
48 1 9 13 5 Very 12
48 5 41 35 47 Mostly 42
3 91 41 51 31 UNFAVORABLE 30
1 57 15 19 11 Very 11
2 34 26 32 19 Mostly 19
0 0 0 0 0 Never heard of (VOL) 0
1 3 9 2 17 Can't Rate/Refused (VOL) 16
100 100 100 100 100 100
Q.16 Do you happen to know which candidate [INSERT ITEM, ROTATE] George W. Bush, John Kerry,
both or neither?
a. Favors allowing workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions in the
stock market?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
66 61 44 48 40 Bush
9 6 14 13 15 Kerry
3 5 2 2 2 Both
3 5 7 5 8 Neither
20 23 33 32 34 Don't know (VOL)
100 100 100 100 100
b. Favors federal funding of medical research using stem cells from human embryos?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom-
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted
6 6 8 8 7 Bush
66 74 59 62 56 Kerry
13 4 7 9 5 Both
3 1 4 5 3 Neither
12 15 22 16 29 Don't know (VOL)
100 100 100 100 100
Thinking about Iraq for a moment
Q.17 Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force
against Iraq?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
89 11 43 40 46 Right decision 45
4 84 44 51 36 Wrong decision 41
7 5 13 9 18 Don't know/Refused 14
100 100 100 100 100 100
And finally
PARTY In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
66 4 18 18 18 Republican 19
6 66 27 28 24 Democrat 23
26 28 46 49 44 Independent 44
1 1 6 4 8 No Preference (VOL.) 7
0 0 1 * 1 Other (VOL.) *
1 1 2 1 5 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 7
100 100 100 100 100 100
IF ANSWERED 3, 4, 5 OR 9 IN PARTY, ASK:
PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party?
-- Swing Voters --
Now Still Sept 2004
Certain Certain Dec- Uncom- Swing
Bush Kerry Total ided mitted Voters
23 * 20 20 19 Republican 16
1 26 17 22 13 Democrat 19
4 3 19 12 26 Other/Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 22
28% 29% 56% 54% 58% 57%
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