Hot Topics
Survey Reports
October 31, 2004
Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign
Questionnaire
PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS
NOVEMBER 2004 ELECTION WEEKEND SURVEY
FINAL TOPLINE
October 27 - 30, 2004
General Public N=2,804
Registered Voters N=2,408
NOTE: ALL NUMBERS IN SURVEY, INCLUDING TREND FIGURES, ARE BASED ON REGISTERED
VOTERS EXCEPT WHERE NOTED
THOUGHT How much thought have you given to next Tuesday's election, quite a lot, or only a
little?
Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/
A lot Some Little None Ref.
November, 2004 82 3 12 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2004 76 5 15 3 1=100
Early October, 2004 74 4 19 2 1=100
September 22-26, 2004 68 4 23 4 1=100
September 17-21, 2004 66 4 25 4 1=100
Early September, 2004 71 3 22 3 1=100
September 11-14 69 3 23 4 1=100
September 8-10 73 3 21 2 1=100
August, 2004 69 2 26 2 1=100
July, 2004 67 2 28 2 1=100
June, 2004 58 3 36 2 1=100
May, 2004 59 6 30 4 1=100
Late March, 2004 60 4 31 4 1=100
Mid-March, 2004 65 2 31 2 *=100
2000 November, 2000 72 6 19 2 1=100
Late October, 2000 66 6 24 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 67 9 19 4 1=100
Early October, 2000 60 8 27 4 1=100
September, 2000 59 8 29 3 1=100
July, 2000 46 6 45 3 *=100
June, 2000 46 6 43 5 *=100
May, 2000 48 4 42 5 1=100
April, 2000 45 7 41 7 *=100
1996 November, 1996 67 8 22 3 *=100
October, 1996 65 7 26 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 61 7 29 2 1=100
Early September, 1996 56 3 36 4 1=100
July, 1996 55 3 41 1 *=100
June, 1996 50 5 41 3 1=100
1992 Early October, 1992 77 5 16 1 1=100
September, 1992 69 3 26 1 1=100
August, 1992 72 4 23 1 *=100
June, 1992 63 6 29 1 1=100
1988 Gallup: November, 1988 73 8 17 2 0=100
Gallup: October, 1988 69 9 20 2 0=100
Gallup: August, 1988 61 10 27 2 0=100
Gallup: September, 1988 57 18 23 2 0=100
Q.2 How closely have you been following news about the presidential election... very closely,
fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?
Very Fairly Not too Not at all
Closely Closely Closely Closely DK/Ref
November, 2004 52 36 8 4 *=100
Mid-October, 2004 54 29 11 5 1=100
Early September, 2004 40 34 14 11 1=100
November, 2000 39 44 12 5 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 40 37 15 8 *=100
Early October, 2000 42 36 15 6 1=100
September, 2000 27 46 18 8 1=100
November, 1996 34 45 15 6 *=100
Early September, 1996 29 39 19 13 *=100
October, 1992 55 36 7 2 0=100
September, 1992 47 36 11 6 *=100
August, 1992 36 51 11 2 0=100
October, 1988 43 44 11 2 *=100
August, 1988 39 45 13 3 *=100
PRECINCT Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
Mid- Early Early Late Mid- Early Late Early Late
Oct Sept Aug Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Sept Nov
2004 2004 2004 2002 2000 2000 2000 2000 1998 1998 1996 1996 1994
82 Yes 79 83 88 86 83 81 82 84 86 87 85 85 91
18 No 21 17 12 14 17 19 18 16 14 13 15 15 9
* Don't know/Ref. * * 0 * * * 0 * * * * * *
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
RESPONDENTS IN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE SKIPPED TO FOLGOV.
REGIST These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or move
around so often they don't get a chance to re-register... Are you NOW registered to
vote in your precinct or election district, or haven't you been able to register so far?
IF ANSWERED "1" IN REGIST AND IS NOT IN "DAY OF REGISTRATION" STATE, ASK:
REGICERT Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote, or is there a chance your
registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason?
BASED ON TOTAL VOTING AGE POPULATION [N=2804]:
Yes, Absolutely Chance DK/ Day of No, DK/
Registered Certain of Lapse Ref. registration Not Reg. Ref.
November, 2004 83 76 2 * 5 16 1=100
November, 2000 80 73 2 * 5 20 *=100
November, 1996 76 69 2 1 4 24 *=100
IF RESPONDENT IS IN "DAY OF" STATE & ANSWERED "NO, NOT REGISTERED" OR "DON'T
HAVE TO REGISTER" IN REGIST, ASK:
PLANREG Next Tuesday, do you plan to register so that you can vote in the election?
BASED ON TOTAL VOTING AGE POPULATION IN "DAY OF" STATE [N=30]:
53 Yes
28 No GO TO Q.4
19 Don't know/Refused GO TO Q.4
100
PROGRAMMING NOTE: A PERSON IS COUNTED AS "REGISTERED" AT THIS POINT IF THEY:
(1) ARE IN NORTH DAKOTA
(2) ANSWERED "YES" TO REGIST AND LIVE IN A "DAY OF REGISTRATION" STATE
(3) ANSWERED "YES" TO REGICERT
(4) ANSWERED "YES" TO PLANREG
NON-REGISTERED VOTERS GET SKIPPED TO Q.4/4a/4b AND FROM THERE, SKIPPED TO SEX
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
FOLGOV Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the
time, whether there's an election or not. Other's aren't that interested. Would you say
you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of
the time, only now and then, or hardly at all?
Most of Some of Only Now Hardly
The Time the Time and Then at All DK/Ref
November, 2004 61 27 9 3 *=100
Mid-October, 2004 63 26 8 3 *=100
June, 2004 49 35 12 4 *=100
November, 2000 51 32 12 5 *=100
November, 1996 52 32 12 4 *=100
October, 1996 43 37 13 6 1=100
October, 1988 52 33 12 3 *=100
OFTVOTE How often would you say you vote... (READ)
(VOL.)
Nearly Part of Never (VOL.) (VOL.)
Always Always The time Seldom Vote Other DK/Ref.
November, 2004 62 21 7 6 3 1 *=100
Mid-October, 2004 63 22 7 5 2 1 *=100
November, 2000 57 26 8 6 2 1 *=100
Late October, 2000 52 30 9 6 1 2 0=100
Mid-October, 2000 54 27 10 6 * 3 *=100
Early October, 2000 51 29 10 6 3 1 *=100
November, 1996 55 28 8 6 2 1 *=100
October, 1996 52 30 9 5 2 2 *=100
Early October, 1992 54 33 8 4 * 1 *=100
October, 1988 51 37 8 3 1 * *=100
Q.3 Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
Late Early Gallup
Nov Nov Oct Oct Nov Oct Nov Nov Oct
2002 2000 1998 1998 1996 1996 1994 1988 1988
85 Yes gives answer 88 84 90 87 88 85 93 89 86
15 No/Don't know/Ref./No Answer 12 16 10 13 12 15 7 11 14
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NOTE: IN 33 STATES (PLUS WASHINGTON, D.C.) WHERE NADER IS ON THE BALLOT, INCLUDE
NADER. IN STATES WHERE NADER IS NOT ON THE BALLOT, NADER NOT INCLUDED.
Q.4 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [INSERT, ROTATE
REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS WITH NADER TICKET LAST] for the Republican
ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and
John Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? IF CHOSE BUSH, KERRY OR
NADER IN Q.4, ASK:
Q.4a Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.4 LAST NAME ONLY, DO NOT
READ VP CHOICE) strongly or only moderately? IF OTHER OR DK (Q.4=4,9), ASK:
Q.4b As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.4]?
Bush/Lean Bush Kerry/Lean Kerry Nader/ Other/
Only Only Lean Don't
Total Strongly Mod. DK Total Strongly Mod. DK Nader Know
November, 2004 45 34 11 * 46 29 16 1 1 8=100
Mid-October, 2004 45 32 13 * 45 28 16 1 1 9=100
Early October, 2004 48 35 12 1 41 24 17 * 2 9=100
September 22-26, 2004 48 40 2 10=100
September 17-21, 2004 45 42 3 10=100
Early September, 2004 49 33 15 1 43 22 20 1 1 7=100
September 11-14 46 30 15 1 46 22 24 * 1 7=100
September 8-10 52 36 15 1 40 22 17 1 1 7=100
August, 2004 45 32 13 * 47 28 19 * 2 6=100
July, 2004 44 46 3 7=100
June, 2004 46 42 6 6=100
May, 2004 43 46 6 5=100
Late March, 2004 44 43 6 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 42 49 4 5=100
Bush/Lean Bush Gore/Lean Gore Nader
November, 2000 41 26 15 * 45 25 19 1 4 10=100
Late October, 2000 45 29 16 * 43 24 19 * 4 8=100
Mid-October, 2000 43 25 18 * 45 22 23 * 4 8=100
Early October, 2000 43 26 17 * 44 22 22 * 5 8=100
September, 2000 41 21 19 1 47 25 21 1 2 10=100
July, 2000 42 41 6 11=100
Dole/Lean Dole Clinton/Lean Clinton Perot
November, 1996 32 17 15 * 51 26 24 1 9 8=100
October, 1996 34 17 16 1 51 25 26 * 8 7=100
Late September, 1996 35 16 18 1 51 26 25 * 7 7=100
Early September, 1996 34 17 17 * 52 26 26 0 8 6=100
July, 1996 34 44 16 6=100
Bush,Sr./Lean Bush,Sr. Clinton/Lean Clinton Perot
Late October, 1992 34 20 14 -- 44 26 18 -- 19 3=100
Early October, 1992 35 14 21 -- 48 23 25 -- 8 9=100
June, 1992 31 28 36 5=100
Bush,Sr./Lean Bush,Sr. Dukakis/Lean Dukakis
October, 1988 50 24 26 -- 42 20 22 -- n/a 8=100
September, 1988 50 26 24 -- 44 19 25 -- n/a 6=100
May, 1988 40 12 28 -- 53 14 38 -- n/a 7=100
NOTE SPECIAL INSTRUCTION: NON-REGISTERED VOTERS ('2' IN REGIST AND NOT IN "DAY OF
REGISTRATION" STATE, OR '9' IN REGIST, OR '2' OR '9' IN REGICERT, OR '2' OR '9' IN
PLANREG) SHOULD NOW SKIP TO SEX]
THOSE WHO CHOSE KERRY/EDWARDS (Q.4/Q.4b) ASK:
Q.5a Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR John Kerry or more a vote AGAINST
George W. Bush?
THOSE WHO CHOSE BUSH/CHENEY (Q.4/Q.4b) ASK:
Q.5b Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR George W. Bush or more a vote AGAINST
John Kerry?
----------- KERRY ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2004 Total Kerry Bush decid Total Bush Kerry decid DK
Nov 46 20 23 3 45 34 9 2 9=100
Mid-Oct 45 18 24 3 45 32 10 3 10=100
Oct 41 15 23 3 48 36 10 2 11=100
Early Sept 43 15 26 2 49 38 9 2 8=100
9/11-14 46 16 28 2 46 35 8 3 8=100
9/8-10 40 14 23 3 52 40 10 2 8=100
Aug 47 20 24 3 45 34 8 3 8=100
June 46 17 27 2 48 35 11 2 6=100
May 50 15 32 3 45 33 10 2 5=100
Late Mar 47 17 27 3 46 36 8 2 7=100
Mid-Mar 52 21 29 2 43 34 7 2 5=100
Feb 47 15 30 2 47 39 6 2 6=100
----------- GORE ------------ ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
2000 Total Gore Bush decid Total Bush Gore decid DK
Nov 45 29 14 2 41 27 12 2 14=100
Sept 47 30 14 3 41 24 14 3 12=100
----------- CLINTON ------------ ----------- DOLE -------- -------------PEROT----------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1996 Total Clinton other decid Total Dole other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Nov 51 33 15 3 32 15 15 2 9 4 5 * 8=100
Oct 51 33 16 2 34 15 18 1 8 4 4 * 7=100
Sept 52 35 15 2 34 16 17 1 8 3 5 0 6=100
Mar 53 30 20 3 41 15 25 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
---------- CLINTON ---------- ---------- BUSH --------- -----------PEROT-------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1992 Total Clinton other decid Total Bush other decid Total Perot Other decid DK
Oct 44 25 17 2 34 19 13 2 19 10 7 2 3=100
Oct 48 23 22 3 35 19 13 3 8 3 5 * 9=100
Sept 53 21 29 3 38 20 16 2 -- -- -- -- 9=100
Aug 57 27 28 2 37 20 16 1 -- -- -- -- 6=100
Mar 44 13 29 2 49 32 15 2 -- -- -- -- 7=100
---------- DUKAKIS ---------- ------------- BUSH --------------
Pro- Anti- Un- Pro- Anti- Un- Other/
1988 Total Dukakis Bush decid Total Bush Dukakis decid DK
Oct 42 23 15 4 50 31 16 3 8=100
Sept 44 21 19 4 50 31 15 4 6=100
May 53 23 26 4 40 26 11 3 7=100
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE KERRY IN Q.4/4b (Q.4=1,3 OR Q.4b=1,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.6a Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John Kerry in November, or have
you definitely decided not to vote for him?
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Kerry vote for Kerry Refused
November, 2004 6 43 5=54%
Mid-October, 2004 6 42 7=55%
Early October, 2004 9 45 5=59%
September 22-26, 2004 14 41 5=60%
September 17-21, 2004 10 40 7=57%
Early September, 2004 11 42 4=57%
September 11-14 11 38 5=54%
September 8-10 11 46 3=60%
August, 2004 11 39 3=53%
July, 2004 13 36 5=54%
June, 2004 10 41 3=54%
May, 2004 11 35 4=50%
Late March, 2004 13 37 3=53%
Mid-March, 2004 13 32 3=48%
Late February, 2004 13 36 3=52%
Early February, 2004 15 33 5=53%
Gore: November, 2000 8 41 6=55%
Gore: Late October, 2000 9 44 4=57%
Gore: Mid-October, 2000 10 40 5=55%
Gore: Early October, 2000 11 38 7=56%
Gore: September, 2000 13 35 5=53%
Gore: June, 2000 14 34 6=54%
Clinton: November, 1996 6 37 6=49%
Clinton: October, 1996 10 35 4=49%
Clinton: Late September, 1996 11 35 3=49%
Clinton: Early September, 1996 10 34 4=48%
Clinton: July, 1996 8 36 4=48%
Clinton: Late October, 1992 11 43 2=56%
Clinton: Early October, 1992 14 32 6=52%
Clinton: September, 1992 12 28 6=46%
Clinton: August, 1992 14 26 3=43%
Clinton: May, 1992 11 38 6=55%
IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.4/4b (Q.4=2,3 OR Q.4b=2,3,4,9) ASK:
Q.6b Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George W. Bush in November, or
have you definitely decided not to vote for him?
Chance might Decided not to Don't know/
vote for Bush vote for Bush Refused
November, 2004 6 44 5=55%
Mid-October, 2004 5 43 7=55%
Early October, 2004 9 39 4=52%
September 22-26, 2004 10 37 5=52%
September 17-21, 2004 9 39 7=55%
Early September, 2004 9 38 4=51%
September 11-14 8 41 5=54%
September 8-10 9 35 4=48%
August, 2004 10 42 3=55%
July, 2004 10 41 5=56%
June, 2004 9 41 2=52%
May, 2004 9 42 4=55%
Late March, 2004 11 40 3=54%
Mid-March, 2004 11 44 2=57%
Late February, 2004 10 43 3=56%
Early February, 2004 10 41 2=53%
Bush: November, 2000 8 44 7=59%
Bush: Late October, 2000 10 41 4=55%
Bush: Mid-October, 2000 12 40 5=57%
Bush: Early October, 2000 11 39 7=57%
Bush: September, 2000 15 38 6=59%
Bush: June, 2000 15 33 6=54%
Dole: November, 1996 8 54 6=68%
Dole: October, 1996 11 51 4=66%
Dole: Late September, 1996 16 44 5=65%
Dole: Early September, 1996 14 47 5=66%
Dole: July, 1996 15 40 3=58%
Bush, Sr: Late October, 1992 11 53 2=66%
Bush, Sr: Early October, 1992 13 46 6=65%
Bush, Sr: September, 1992 12 44 6=62%
Bush, Sr: August, 1992 15 45 4=64%
Bush, Sr: May, 1992 8 40 5=53%
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
PLANTO1 Do you yourself plan to vote in the election this year, or not?
Yes, Plan No, Don't Don't know/
To Vote Plan To Refused
November, 2004 97 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2004 98 1 1=100
Early October, 2004 98 1 1=100
Early September, 2004 98 1 1=100
September 11-14 97 2 1=100
September 8-10 99 1 *=100
August, 2004 98 2 *=100
June, 2004 96 2 2=100
November, 2002* 90 8 2=100
Early October, 2002* 95 3 2=100
November, 2000 96 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 97 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2000 96 2 2=100
Early October, 2000 97 2 1=100
September, 2000 95 3 2=100
June, 2000 95 2 3=100
Late October, 1998* 91 6 3=100
Early October, 1998* 92 4 4=100
Early September, 1998* 95 2 3=100
Late August, 1998* 93 3 4=100
June, 1998* 95 3 2=100
November, 1996 96 2 2=100
October, 1996 98 1 1=100
Late September, 1996 98 1 1=100
Early September, 1996 96 2 2=100
July, 1996 95 3 2=100
June, 1996 96 2 2=100
November, 1994* 93 5 2=100
October, 1994* 95 3 2=100
October, 1992 98 1 1=100
September, 1992 98 1 1=100
August, 1992 97 1 2=100
June, 1992 97 1 2=100
October, 1988 98 1 1=100
* Non-Presidential elections
ASK IF 'VOL. ALREADY VOTED' (3 IN PLANTO1) [N=187]:
EARLY Just to be sure I understand are you saying you have ALREADY mailed in your vote or
cast your vote early at your local election office, or do you mean that you PLAN TO do
so?
97 Already voted GO TO Q.7
3 Plan to vote early GO TO SCALE10
0 Other (VOL.) GO TO SCALE10
* Don't know/Refused GO TO SCALE10
100
ASK IF DID NOT ALREADY VOTE (2,3,9 IN EARLY):
SCALE10 I'd like you to rate your chance of voting in this year's election on a scale of 10
to 1. If 10 represents a person who definitely will vote and 1 represents a person
who definitely will not vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself?
BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Definitely Definitely
will vote will not vote
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 DK/Ref
November, 2004 87 4 3 1 1 1 * * * 2 1=100
Mid-October, 2004 87 4 3 1 1 1 * * * 2 1=100
November, 2002* 66 9 9 3 1 4 1 1 1 5 1=100
Early October, 2002* 64 10 10 4 3 4 1 * * 2 2=100
November, 2000 80 6 5 2 1 3 * * * 3 1=100
Late October, 2000 83 5 5 1 1 2 * 1 1 1 *=100
Mid-October, 2000 80 7 4 3 1 3 1 * * 1 1=100
Early October, 2000 78 7 5 2 2 2 * 1 1 1 1=100
Late October, 1998* 70 6 7 4 1 4 1 1 1 4 1=100
Early October, 1998* 64 9 10 4 2 4 1 2 1 2 1=100
November, 1996 77 7 7 2 1 2 * 1 * 2 1=100
October, 1996 77 9 7 2 2 2 * * * 1 *=100
Late September, 1996 78 10 6 2 1 1 * * * 1 1=100
November, 1994* 67 9 8 2 2 4 1 1 1 3 2=100
October, 1994* 66 10 9 4 2 4 1 1 * 2 1=100
Gallup: September, 1992 77 5 4 3 2 4 * 1 * 4 *=100
Gallup: November, 1988 77 7 6 2 1 3 * * * 2 2=100
Gallup: October, 1988 73 8 7 3 2 3 1 * * 1 2=100
* Non-Presidential elections
IF YES IN PLANTO1, ASK:
PLANTO3 Do you plan to vote BEFORE Election Day, that is through the mail or with an absentee
ballot, or will you probably vote at your polling place ON Election Day, OR have you
already cast your vote?
BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: Mid- Early
Oct Sept June
2004 2004 2004
9 Before Election Day/By Mail/Absentee 16 13 19
75 Will vote at polling place on Election Day 78 84 77
13 Already voted 3 * n/a
* Don't know/Refused 1 1 *
3 Don't Plan to Vote/Don't Know 2 2 4
100 100 100 100
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.7 In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important, or is
it no more important than any other presidential election?
Nov 2000 Nov 1996
84 Especially important 67 61
15 No more important than the others 31 38
1 Don't Know/Refused 2 1
100 100 100
Q.8 Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the coming
presidential election? [READ]
George W. Bush John Kerry Other/DK
November, 2004 48 27 25=100
Mid-October, 2004 54 27 19=100
Early October, 2004 61 27 12=100
Early September, 2004 60 22 18=100
August, 2004 44 37 19=100
July, 2004 42 38 20=100
June, 2004 51 35 14=100
May, 2004 52 31 17=100
Early February, 2004 56 Bush 32 Dem Candidate 12=100
Mid-January, 2004 61 Bush 21 Dem Candidate 18=100
September, 2003 47 Bush 34 Dem Candidate 19=100
June, 2003 66 Bush 22 Dem Candidate 12=100
November, 2000 43 Bush 32 Gore 25=100
Late October, 2000 48 Bush 38 Gore 14=100
Early October, 2000 33 Bush 46 Gore 21=100
June, 2000 51 Bush 33 Gore 16=100
October, 1999 70 Bush 23 Gore 7=100
Late September, 1996 12 Dole 79 Clinton 9=100
Early September, 1996 16 Dole 75 Clinton 9=100
July, 1996 19 Dole 72 Clinton 9=100
October, 1992 30 Bush, Sr. 61 Clinton 9=100
March, 1992 72 Bush, Sr. 20 Dem Candidate 8=100
February, 1992 66 Bush, Sr. 25 Dem Candidate 9=100
October, 1991 78 Bush, Sr. 11 Dem Candidate 11=100
Q.9 Recently, have you been contacted over the phone by any candidates, campaigns or other
groups urging you to vote in a particular way in the upcoming elections?
IF YES (1 IN Q.9), ASK:
Q.9a And were you urged to vote for George W. Bush and/or other Republican candidates OR John
Kerry and/or other Democratic candidates?
Mid-Oct Nov Nov
2004 2002 2000
34 Yes 26 33 26
8 Bush/Republicans 7 7 Republicans 8 Bush
8 Kerry/Democrats 6 8 Democrats 6 Gore
2 Other (VOL.) 2 1 2
12 Both (VOL.) 7 12 6
4 Don't know/Refused 4 5 4
65 No 73 66 73
1 Don't know/Refused 1 1 1
100 100 100 100
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
Q.10 Has anyone from a campaign or other group contacted you IN PERSON such as by coming
to your door to urge you to vote in a particular way in the election?
11 Yes
89 No
* Don't know/Refused
100
Q.11 Will this election be the FIRST time that you have voted, or have you voted before?
Mid-Oct
2004
13 First time 11
87 Have voted before 89
* Don't Know/Refused *
100 100
NO QUESTION 1
IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "UNDECIDED," ASK BASED ON NADER STATE:
One last question about your opinion of the candidates...
Q.13a/b I have been asked to try to get a choice for president from everyone I interview.
Even though you may not have made up your mind, could you make a guess so I will have
something to put down? The candidates are Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Kerry and
Edwards, the Democrats, [and the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo.]
BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
1 Bush/Cheney
1 Kerry/Edwards
* Nader/Camejo
* (VOL.) Not going to vote
4 Undecided/Other (9 in Q4b)
94 Question not asked
100
ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS:
I have just a couple questions about broader issues beyond the election...
Thinking about Iraq for a moment
Q.14 Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military
force against Iraq?
Right Wrong Don't know/
decision decision Refused
November, 2004 48 41 11=100
Mid-October, 2004 47 45 8=100
Early October, 2004 53 41 6=100
Early September, 2004 54 41 5=100
August, 2004 55 40 5=100
July, 2004 52 43 5=100
June, 2004 54 39 7=100
May, 2004 49 44 7=100
Early April, 2004 57 36 7=100
Mid-March, 2004 54 40 6=100
Late February, 2004 58 35 7=100
Early February, 2004 57 38 5=100
Mid-January, 2004 66 29 5=100
Early January, 2004 62 28 10=100
December, 2003 69 26 5=100
October, 2003 59 34 7=100
September, 2003 62 33 5=100
August, 2003 65 29 6=100
Early July, 2003 67 25 8=100
May, 2003 76 20 4=100
Q.15 How would you rate economic conditions in this country today... as excellent, good, only
fair, or poor?
Only Don't know/
Excellent Good Fair Poor Refused
November, 2004 5 31 37 26 1=100
Mid-September, 2004 5 35 39 20 1=100
August, 2004 3 32 45 20 *=100
Late February, 2004 2 29 42 26 1=100
And thinking about the war on terrorism...
Q.16 Do you think the United States is winning or losing the war on terrorism?
Early Early Sept
Oct 2004 2004
45 Winning 48 54
31 Losing 33 28
10 Neither (VOL) 9 9
14 Don't Know/Refused 10 19
100 100 100
Q.17 How much of a risk to the country is there, if any, in replacing George W. Bush with John
Kerry while the U.S. is threatened by terrorism? In your opinion, does this represent
a major risk, a minor risk, or no risk at all?
37 Major risk
26 Minor risk
30 No risk at all
7 Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
100
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